Sparrow Data

Pick history — Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights, from 9 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.48 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-26	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.086	1.07x	−SP strikeout rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
2026-09-13	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.067	1.56x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-20	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.061	1.71x	+SP career barrels allowed, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-22	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.062	1.44x	+SP fly balls allowed, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-23	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.061	1.64x	−recent fly-ball rate, +SP career barrels allowed	no
2026-09-25	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.061	1.41x	+pull tendency, −platoon edge	no
2026-09-26	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.061	1.71x	+pull tendency, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data