Sparrow Data
Pick history — Will Smith
Will Smith
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 6 games across 6 nights, from 7 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 1 of them.
Times picked
4graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 0.67 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
25%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.122 | 1.54x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-04 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.122 | 1.33x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-07 | ELEVATED | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.119 | 1.54x | +park factor, +SP fly balls allowed | not yet graded |
| 2026-09-14 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.127 | 1.28x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-16 | ELEVATED | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.126 | 1.30x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-19 | ELEVATED | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.135 | 1.35x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data