Sparrow Data
Pick history — Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 5 games across 5 nights, from 7 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.
Times picked
5graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
3against 0.57 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
60%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.071 | 1.66x | +season barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-12 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.079 | 1.50x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-07-17 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.079 | 1.32x | +park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-07-20 | SLEEPERS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.079 | 1.32x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-23 | SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.088 | 1.41x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data