Sparrow Data

Pick history — Henry Bolte

Henry Bolte

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 8 games across 8 nights, from 11 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.95 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

12%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-21	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.076	1.61x	+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate	no
2026-08-06	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.078	1.50x	+lineup slot, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-16	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.093	1.27x	−recent fly-ball rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-18	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.111	0.091	1.23x	−park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-23	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.086	1.56x	+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-01	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.079	1.26x	−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-02	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.079	1.33x	−recent fly-ball rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-03	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.087	1.61x	+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data