Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 10 games across 10 nights, from 13 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.85 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-19	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.57x	+park factor, −recent barrel rate	not yet graded
2026-07-28	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.058	1.39x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-07-31	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.059	2.38x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-04	SLEEPERS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.059	1.76x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.060	2.06x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-24	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.060	1.47x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-25	SLEEPERS, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.060	1.95x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-29	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.061	1.50x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
2026-08-30	SLEEPERS	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.061	1.46x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-12	AROUND SLATE	T5 · Longshot	0.091	0.075	1.22x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data