Sparrow Data
Pick history — Juan Soto
Juan Soto
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 24 games across 24 nights
Times picked
23graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
4against 5.11 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
17%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.259 | 0.87x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-10 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.263 | 0.86x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-11 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.90x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-07-12 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.259 | 0.93x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| 2026-07-16 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.254 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-18 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.253 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-19 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-07-21 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.246 | 0.92x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-24 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.249 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | not yet graded |
| 2026-08-29 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.244 | 0.93x | +SP fly balls allowed, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-08-30 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.236 | 0.96x | +SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-04 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.232 | 0.91x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-05 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.230 | 1.05x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-06 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.230 | 0.92x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-07 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.201 | 0.230 | 0.87x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-09-08 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.222 | 0.95x | +SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-09 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.230 | 0.99x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-11 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.224 | 0.94x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-12 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.224 | 1.01x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-09-13 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.232 | 0.91x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-09-14 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.224 | 0.91x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| 2026-09-16 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.222 | 0.95x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-17 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.222 | 0.91x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-09-19 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.222 | 0.95x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data