Sparrow Data
Pick history — Juan Soto
Juan Soto
Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 9 games across 9 nights
Times picked
8graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night
Home runs
1against 1.89 expected from our own probabilities
Rate
12%of graded picks homered
A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.
| Date | Boards | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.259 | 0.87x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| 2026-07-10 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.263 | 0.86x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-11 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.90x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-07-12 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.259 | 0.93x | +career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed | no |
| 2026-07-16 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.254 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-18 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.253 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| 2026-07-19 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| 2026-07-21 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.246 | 0.92x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| 2026-07-24 | FAVORITES | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.249 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | not yet graded |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data