Sparrow Data

Pick history — Moisés Ballesteros

Moisés Ballesteros

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 7 games across 7 nights, from 10 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.72 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-23	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.111	1.27x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-25	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-31	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.34x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-14	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.117	1.22x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
2026-09-16	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.118	1.19x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.36x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.32x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data