Sparrow Data

Pick history — Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 5 games across 5 nights, from 7 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 2 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.60 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

25%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.42x	+recent barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-06	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.116	1.21x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data