Sparrow Data

Pick history — Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 11 games across 11 nights, from 14 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 3 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 1.42 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

20%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-24	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.123	1.30x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	HOME RUN
2026-07-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.42x	+recent barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
2026-08-06	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.116	1.21x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
2026-08-07	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-15	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.108	1.30x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.109	1.28x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
2026-09-06	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.102	1.39x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-13	AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.102	1.15x	−SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no
2026-09-15	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.102	1.31x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-09-18	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.095	1.51x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.47x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data