Sparrow Data

Pick history — Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 6 games across 5 nights

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 0.65 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

75%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-08-02	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
2026-08-03	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-09	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.136	1.12x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-16	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.142	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.23x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
2026-08-17	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.148	1.23x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data