Sparrow Data

Pick history — Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

Every game this bat was picked for, in order. 19 games across 19 nights, from 25 board appearances — he was named on more than one board on 6 of them.

Times picked

graded games — counted once each, however many boards named him that night

Home runs

against 2.95 expected from our own probabilities

Rate

17%

of graded picks homered

A single player's sample is very small over a few weeks. These counts describe what happened; they are not evidence about the model either way. The section-level figures on the record are the ones with enough data to mean something.

Date	Boards	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
2026-07-10	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.139	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-11	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.140	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
2026-07-12	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.139	1.14x	+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	HOME RUN
2026-07-21	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.145	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
2026-07-28	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.146	1.21x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-05	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.134	1.40x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-07	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.133	1.07x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
2026-08-08	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.140	1.09x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
2026-08-10	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.137	1.16x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-11	ELEVATED	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.136	1.34x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-12	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
2026-08-17	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.132	1.09x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-19	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.130	1.41x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate	no
2026-08-20	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-08-23	ELEVATED	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
2026-09-05	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.137	1.04x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
2026-09-15	AROUND SLATE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.144	1.11x	+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
2026-09-17	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.143	1.28x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
2026-09-26	ELEVATED, AROUND SLATE	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.144	1.27x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data