Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-13

2026-09-13

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS7 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

COL @ DET12:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.0% carry
CF14 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity37%
Wind14 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm77°73% rh7mph0% rain
1pm79°59% rh8mph1% rain
2pm80°51% rh11mph1% rain
3pm82°45% rh11mph1% rain
4pm81°37% rh14mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.4% over normal 1.18x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jackson Jobe
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
LAA @ WSH1:35 PMNationals Parkneutral park87°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity59%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm81°80% rh3mph8% rain
2pm83°74% rh4mph7% rain
3pm85°67% rh4mph5% rain
4pm87°59% rh6mph3% rain
5pm87°59% rh6mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jorbit VivasWSHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.2% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
−recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.0% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity81%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm72°88% rh6mph37% rain
2pm73°87% rh3mph18% rain
3pm75°84% rh2mph8% rain
4pm77°82% rh4mph7% rain
5pm77°81% rh3mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.8% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.61x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Aaron JudgeNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ ATL1:35 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park84°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity61%
Wind4 mph
Pressure979 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.120 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm81°74% rh6mph0% rain
2pm82°68% rh5mph0% rain
3pm83°65% rh5mph0% rain
4pm84°61% rh5mph0% rain
5pm84°61% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +7.5% over normal 1.90x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.9% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ TOR1:37 PMRogers Centreneutral park82°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.8% carry
CF13 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity40%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm77°74% rh3mph0% rain
2pm78°79% rh7mph0% rain
3pm80°72% rh7mph4% rain
4pm83°42% rh12mph2% rain
5pm82°40% rh13mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.8% over normal 1.29x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Trevor Rogers
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
HOU @ TB1:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity79%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance16%
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm85°80% rh3mph58% rain
2pm86°71% rh6mph41% rain
3pm83°85% rh5mph21% rain
4pm84°84% rh4mph19% rain
5pm84°79% rh4mph16% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hayden Wesneski
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
LAD @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity81%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance41%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm88°72% rh6mph8% rain
2pm87°69% rh7mph19% rain
3pm79°87% rh14mph29% rain
4pm78°86% rh8mph37% rain
5pm81°81% rh7mph41% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.3% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.79x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +season HR pace
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
CLE @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity26%
Wind9 mph
Pressure989 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm70°34% rh10mph0% rain
3pm71°27% rh11mph0% rain
4pm72°28% rh11mph0% rain
5pm71°26% rh10mph0% rain
6pm70°26% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jo AdellCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CIN @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF8 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity43%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm62°67% rh9mph56% rain
3pm64°61% rh10mph22% rain
4pm67°58% rh9mph5% rain
5pm68°43% rh10mph2% rain
6pm67°43% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian YelichMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.6% over normal 1.15x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF10 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity33%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm86°52% rh5mph1% rain
3pm88°40% rh7mph1% rain
4pm89°33% rh8mph1% rain
5pm88°31% rh9mph1% rain
6pm85°33% rh10mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park64°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity76%
Wind7 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm71°50% rh12mph9% rain
3pm70°56% rh12mph22% rain
4pm68°60% rh8mph22% rain
5pm63°78% rh6mph41% rain
6pm64°76% rh7mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.3% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Konnor GriffinPITT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.7% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.9% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-2.5% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ BOS3:05 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity97%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm67°98% rh8mph84% rain
4pm68°98% rh6mph53% rain
5pm67°98% rh4mph22% rain
6pm67°97% rh3mph10% rain
7pm67°97% rh2mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.3% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +7.1% over normal 1.80x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Noah Cameron
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.67 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
SEA @ ATH4:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity28%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm81°24% rh6mph0% rain
5pm81°21% rh6mph0% rain
6pm80°20% rh5mph0% rain
7pm76°23% rh4mph0% rain
8pm71°28% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Josh NaylorSEAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ AZ4:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park96°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity29%
Wind4 mph
Pressure967 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.084 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm104°27% rh6mph2% rain
5pm103°25% rh8mph3% rain
6pm102°26% rh6mph2% rain
7pm98°28% rh5mph4% rain
8pm96°29% rh3mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh JungTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Gabriel MorenoAZT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+lineup slot, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
SD @ SF7:20 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity79%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.221 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm64°66% rh15mph0% rain
8pm61°71% rh11mph0% rain
9pm61°73% rh7mph0% rain
10pm59°76% rh5mph0% rain
11pm58°79% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Xander BogaertsSDT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.4% over normal 1.05x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick Pivetta
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data