Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-11

2026-08-11

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
32picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 28%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE2 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

KC @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity91%
Wind2 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bobby Witt Jr.KCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.73x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Blake Snell
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
PIT @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity88%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.7% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity85%
Wind3 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.159 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.3% over normal 1.22x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
CHC @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park77°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity75%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.1% over normal 1.62x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity89%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Randy ArozarenaSEAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Taylor WardSEAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity53%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.1% over normal 1.14x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYM @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity73%
Wind2 mph
Pressure981 mb
Air density1.124 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.7% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity53%
Wind5 mph
Pressure981 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.1% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.1% over normal 1.61x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bailey Ober
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 0.69 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
CIN @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity89%
Wind4 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 28% +1.4% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity64%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Edmundo SosaPHIT4 · The Field
we say 10% +-1.0% over normal 0.91x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TEX @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +5.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +4.5% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wyatt LangfordTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.4% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity89%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
TB @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity70%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.205 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jeff McNeilATHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.4% over normal 2.06x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
COL @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity31%
Wind4 mph
Pressure971 mb
Air density1.113 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle KarrosCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.9% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.1% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.5% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity100%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.220 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Brown
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data