Sparrow Data
2026-08-11
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-10 all nights 2026-08-12 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.200 | 1.20x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Corey Seager | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.183 | 1.31x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jake Burger | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.158 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.116 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.136 | 1.34x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.116 | 1.40x | +recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Brady House | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.117 | 1.40x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.099 | 1.62x | +recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.118 | 1.35x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.119 | 1.35x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.096 | 1.46x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Taylor Ward | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.099 | 1.42x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.081 | 1.73x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.060 | 2.06x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.074 | 1.66x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.063 | 1.66x | +season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.050 | 1.62x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.33 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Seager | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.183 | 1.31x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.116 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.121 | 1.51x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.149 | 1.22x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.116 | 1.40x | +recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.099 | 1.62x | +recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.119 | 1.35x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Randal Grichuk | CWS | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.096 | 1.46x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jared Young | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.105 | 1.34x | +park factor, +pull tendency | not yet graded |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.060 | 2.06x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Kyle Karros | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.074 | 1.66x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Edmundo Sosa | PHI | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.115 | 0.91x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.081 | 1.14x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.30 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.280 | 0.267 | 1.05x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.200 | 1.20x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Corey Seager | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.183 | 1.31x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.238 | 1.01x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Hunter Goodman | COL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.226 | 1.07x | +SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.237 | 0.250 | 0.95x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.237 | 0.89x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.232 | 0.91x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Wyatt Langford | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.187 | 1.13x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.27 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | T1 · Slugger | 0.815 | 1.089 | 0.75x | elite suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | T1 · Slugger | 0.810 | 1.006 | 0.81x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Hunter Brown | T1 · Slugger | 0.761 | 0.925 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 3.02 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | T1 · Slugger | 1.078 | 0.919 | 1.17x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed | |
| Bailey Ober | T1 · Slugger | 0.899 | 0.695 | 1.29x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 3 HR allowed |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.61 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.