Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-16

2026-08-16

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
39picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS6 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.7 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

BAL @ TB12:15 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park90°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity62%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Dylan BeaversBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.6% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+pull tendency, −SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.6% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ PIT1:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity80%
Wind8 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.127 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.1% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ ATL1:35 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park96°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity36%
Wind6 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.099 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corbin CarrollAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.6% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +4.0% over normal 1.98x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYY @ TOR1:37 PMRogers Centreneutral park76°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.1% carry
CF10 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity71%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Brett BatemanTORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.5% over normal 1.06x · ATS
+lineup slot, −season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 8 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.6% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Dylan Cease
lineup expected to homer 1.15 times vs 1.38 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
WSH @ NYM1:40 PMCiti Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity67%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
A.J. EwingNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ DET1:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colt KeithDETT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.9% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.5% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Drew Anderson
lineup expected to homer 1.07 times vs 1.30 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
SD @ CLE1:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity87%
Wind8 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis RengifoSDT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.3% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP workload
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIA @ CIN1:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.2% carry
CF11 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity49%
Wind11 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.125 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.89x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity38%
Wind9 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ CHC3:15 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity93%
Wind2 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
JJ WetherholtSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
COL @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF9 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity92%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.223 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.5% over normal 1.11x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Blade Tidwell
lineup expected to homer 0.75 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
TEX @ ATH4:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity36%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.27x · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.7% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
KC @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity62%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +7.8% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Salvador PerezKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Michael MasseyKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.5% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Bobby Witt Jr.KCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Isaac CollinsKCT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.84x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan Johnson
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 0.68 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
MIL @ LAD4:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity74%
Wind5 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis LaraMILT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.1% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ HOU7:20 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity76%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.5% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data