Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-16

2026-08-16

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-15 all nights 2026-08-17 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Salvador Perez	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.148	1.27x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Alec Burleson	STL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.142	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Corbin Carroll	AZ	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.140	1.31x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Michael Massey	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.108	1.69x	+park factor, +pull tendency	HOME RUN
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.119	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.111	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Jesús Sánchez	TOR	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.125	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.110	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.108	1.51x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
JJ Wetherholt	STL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.122	1.34x	+career hard-hit rate, +season fly-ball rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.121	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
Tommy Edman	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.090	1.55x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
A.J. Ewing	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.095	1.47x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.78 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.062	1.89x	+park factor, −lineup slot	no
Isaac Collins	KC	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.064	1.84x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.069	1.52x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Luis Rengifo	SD	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.055	1.60x	+park factor, +SP workload	HOME RUN
Luis Lara	MIL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.058	1.54x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.041	1.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.151	1.21x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.49x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.110	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.108	1.51x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
JJ Wetherholt	STL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.122	1.34x	+career hard-hit rate, +season fly-ball rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.110	1.45x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.144	1.11x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Cam Smith	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.118	1.21x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
Tommy Edman	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.090	1.55x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Henry Bolte	ATH	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.093	1.27x	−recent fly-ball rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Dylan Beavers	BAL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.089	1.18x	+pull tendency, −SP career barrels allowed	no
Brett Bateman	TOR	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.086	1.06x	+lineup slot, −season hard-hit rate	no
Colt Keith	DET	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.079	1.12x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.47 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Byron Buxton	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.243	0.99x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.231	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.232	1.04x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.266	0.91x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.235	0.234	1.01x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.203	1.04x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.239	0.85x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.238	0.85x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.08 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Dylan Cease	T1 · Slugger	1.151	1.381	0.83x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Drew Anderson	T1 · Slugger	1.068	1.297	0.82x	strong suppression spot	3 HR allowed
Patrick Sandoval	T1 · Slugger	0.880	1.073	0.82x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Blade Tidwell	T1 · Slugger	0.749	0.898	0.83x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 6 home runs against 4.65 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Ryan Johnson		T1 · Slugger	0.949	0.675	1.40x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.68 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data