Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-17

2026-07-17

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-16 all nights 2026-07-18 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.151	1.39x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Paul Goldschmidt	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.153	1.33x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.127	1.48x	+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Dansby Swanson	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate	no
Michael Conforto	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.091	2.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Ryan Jeffers	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.127	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Austin Wells	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.128	1.38x	+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed	not yet graded
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.41x	+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
Colt Keith	DET	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.50x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	not yet graded

Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.81 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.089	1.60x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Kyle Karros	COL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.081	1.52x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Willi Castro	COL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.081	1.45x	+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.087	1.34x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.058	1.79x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Patrick Bailey	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.079	1.32x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Nick Fortes	TB	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.063	1.37x	+season hard-hit rate, −career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.45 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.151	1.39x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Michael Conforto	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.091	2.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.127	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.23x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.130	1.22x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.114	1.25x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Cam Smith	HOU	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.097	1.27x	+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Karros	COL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.081	1.52x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.087	1.34x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.058	1.79x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.65 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.273	1.05x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.247	1.03x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.248	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.200	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.278	0.87x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.275	0.82x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.209	1.01x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.151	1.39x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.234	0.90x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.64 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Spencer Miles	T1 · Slugger	1.200	1.405	0.85x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Chris Sale	T1 · Slugger	0.956	1.114	0.86x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Landen Roupp	T1 · Slugger	0.925	1.071	0.86x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Cade Cavalli	T1 · Slugger	0.709	0.799	0.89x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 4.39 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bailey Ober		T1 · Slugger	1.353	1.133	1.19x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.13 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data