Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-17

2026-07-17

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED5 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE3 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SF @ SEA10:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.196 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TB @ BOS1:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.6% carry
CF13 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity35%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick FortesTBT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.37x · SLEEPERS
+season hard-hit rate, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.3% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity31%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Paul GoldschmidtNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +9.2% over normal 2.01x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.9% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +1.3% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity30%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.3% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CWS @ TOR7:15 PMRogers Centreneutral park71°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.6% carry
CF7 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity82%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.8% over normal 1.25x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.7% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.9% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Spencer Miles
lineup expected to homer 1.20 times vs 1.41 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TEX @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity84%
Wind2 mph
Pressure981 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.1% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Chris Sale
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park93°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.1% carry
CF10 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity48%
Wind10 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.113 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heriberto HernándezMIAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity79%
Wind5 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.129 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dansby SwansonCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael ConfortoCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.6% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan JeffersMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.2% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bailey Ober
lineup expected to homer 1.35 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
SD @ KC8:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity79%
Wind10 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.4% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.9% over normal 1.22x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park86°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity75%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.6% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park91°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity23%
Wind6 mph
Pressure845 mb
Air density0.958 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.1% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle KarrosCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Willi CastroCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.3% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity61%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.159 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.0% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colt KeithDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.7% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
WSH @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park90°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity24%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.0% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Cade Cavalli
lineup expected to homer 0.71 times vs 0.80 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
STL @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park92°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity50%
Wind2 mph
Pressure972 mb
Air density1.095 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.6% over normal 1.79x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick BaileyCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data