Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-26

2026-08-26

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.9.
FAVORITES5 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TB @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF12 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity48%
Wind12 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.141 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm78°62% rh10mph0% rain
2pm79°59% rh13mph0% rain
3pm80°51% rh11mph0% rain
4pm81°49% rh12mph1% rain
5pm82°48% rh12mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge MateoTBT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.1% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CHC @ AZ3:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park108°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp108°F
Humidity11%
Wind5 mph
Pressure967 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.065 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

3pm115°12% rh9mph0% rain
4pm116°10% rh6mph0% rain
5pm115°10% rh5mph0% rain
6pm113°10% rh5mph0% rain
7pm108°11% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gabriel MorenoAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.7% over normal 1.87x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
CIN @ SF3:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.2% carry
CF14 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity55%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.192 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm75°50% rh14mph0% rain
4pm76°48% rh15mph0% rain
5pm74°49% rh16mph0% rain
6pm72°53% rh15mph0% rain
7pm70°55% rh14mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Drew GilbertSFT4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.3% over normal 1.03x · ATS
−park factor, −career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
not yet graded
CLE @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity50%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm100°24% rh8mph1% rain
5pm95°35% rh7mph1% rain
6pm94°34% rh6mph1% rain
7pm90°39% rh6mph1% rain
8pm85°50% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park68°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity61%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.198 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm75°56% rh7mph0% rain
5pm76°52% rh7mph0% rain
6pm76°51% rh5mph0% rain
7pm73°53% rh5mph0% rain
8pm68°61% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh NaylorSEAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +0.6% over normal 1.07x · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.3% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
PIT @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park74°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity84%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm84°58% rh7mph2% rain
5pm82°65% rh6mph1% rain
6pm77°79% rh5mph2% rain
7pm74°85% rh6mph2% rain
8pm74°84% rh2mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Oneil CruzPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity89%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance15%
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm82°77% rh4mph15% rain
7pm81°76% rh5mph11% rain
8pm79°84% rh9mph17% rain
9pm76°94% rh13mph23% rain
10pm77°89% rh2mph15% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.0% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park75°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.5% carry
CF9 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity55%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm85°41% rh8mph0% rain
7pm82°43% rh6mph0% rain
8pm78°49% rh6mph0% rain
9pm76°56% rh9mph0% rain
10pm75°55% rh9mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.4% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Tanner Gordon
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 0.78 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
HOU @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity84%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm76°64% rh8mph0% rain
8pm73°78% rh7mph0% rain
9pm72°83% rh4mph0% rain
10pm71°85% rh4mph0% rain
11pm72°84% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 17% +5.0% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.4% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
KC @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park66°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity85%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm71°83% rh9mph0% rain
8pm68°85% rh6mph0% rain
9pm68°85% rh6mph0% rain
10pm67°84% rh3mph1% rain
11pm66°85% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.4% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity83%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°73% rh9mph0% rain
8pm72°80% rh8mph0% rain
9pm71°85% rh7mph0% rain
10pm71°86% rh7mph0% rain
11pm72°83% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Luis LaraMILT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.5% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity81%
Wind4 mph
Pressure978 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm81°76% rh1mph5% rain
8pm79°82% rh3mph11% rain
9pm77°84% rh3mph8% rain
10pm76°84% rh3mph5% rain
11pm75°81% rh4mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +9.3% over normal 1.94x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.80x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.6% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AJ Smith-Shawver
lineup expected to homer 1.35 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TEX @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity84%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°86% rh7mph5% rain
8pm72°86% rh3mph2% rain
9pm72°85% rh2mph1% rain
10pm70°84% rh3mph1% rain
11pm70°84% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.9% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm89°45% rh5mph1% rain
8pm85°41% rh8mph0% rain
9pm82°46% rh7mph0% rain
10pm79°53% rh5mph0% rain
11pm77°59% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.9% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle Bradish
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIN @ ATH9:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity44%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm79°32% rh6mph0% rain
10pm76°36% rh4mph0% rain
11pm74°38% rh4mph0% rain
12am72°42% rh5mph0% rain
1am70°44% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.7% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.5% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data