Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-05

2026-08-05

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
33picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

TOR @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity52%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.6% over normal 1.19x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Brown
lineup expected to homer 0.67 times vs 0.80 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
LAD @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity80%
Wind3 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.1% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
−lineup slot, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
SF @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park100°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.8% carry
CF11 mph
Temp100°F
Humidity28%
Wind11 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.105 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +4.1% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.8% over normal 1.20x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
TB @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity20%
Wind6 mph
Pressure844 mb
Air density0.970 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.4% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edouard JulienCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.7% over normal 1.89x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
LAA @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park78°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF2 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity95%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.63x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
WSH @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryson StottPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +8.2% over normal 1.81x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.5% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.5% over normal 1.18x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF2 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity57%
Wind2 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Christian Scott
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATH @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity50%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
STL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.0% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity76%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Masataka YoshidaBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.35x · ATS
+pull tendency, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.9% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sonny Gray
lineup expected to homer 1.13 times vs 1.28 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.2% carry
CF1 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity89%
Wind1 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.9% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF1 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity89%
Wind1 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.2% over normal 1.83x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity82%
Wind8 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.2% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Noah Cameron
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
DET @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park63°F, wind 0 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF0 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity62%
Wind0 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.207 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colt KeithDETT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.8% over normal 1.20x · ATS
−SP career barrels allowed, +season barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park89°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity43%
Wind4 mph
Pressure972 mb
Air density1.103 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Manny MachadoSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ty FranceSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Luis RengifoSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.0% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mitch Bratt
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data