Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-05

2026-08-05

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-04 all nights 2026-08-06 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.239	1.19x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Manny Machado	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.167	1.26x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Jake Burger	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.162	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.134	1.40x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
Ty France	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.138	1.33x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Bryson Stott	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.101	1.81x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Dylan Crews	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.124	1.41x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.098	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate	no
Lawrence Butler	ATH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.109	1.46x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.101	1.42x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.103	1.38x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Randal Grichuk	CWS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.71 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Luis Rengifo	SD	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.065	1.61x	+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.053	1.89x	+season barrel rate, +career barrel rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.060	1.67x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.050	1.83x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Hunter Feduccia	LAD	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.057	1.54x	−lineup slot, +season barrel rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.051	1.59x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.34 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.239	1.19x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Jake Burger	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.162	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.134	1.40x	+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate	no
Ty France	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.138	1.33x	+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.133	1.37x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Bryson Stott	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.101	1.81x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.098	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate	no
Lawrence Butler	ATH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.109	1.46x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.137	1.16x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.32x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Masataka Yoshida	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.091	1.35x	+pull tendency, −SP strikeout rate	no
Colt Keith	DET	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.087	1.20x	−SP career barrels allowed, +season barrel rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.060	1.67x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.050	1.83x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.75 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.239	1.19x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.240	1.06x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.225	1.07x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.260	0.93x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.235	0.226	1.04x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.189	1.20x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.191	1.18x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.239	0.95x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Manny Machado	SD	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.167	1.26x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.07 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Sonny Gray	T1 · Slugger	1.129	1.277	0.88x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Noah Cameron	T1 · Slugger	0.961	1.067	0.90x	lean suppression	0 HR allowed
Christian Scott	T1 · Slugger	0.909	1.014	0.90x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Hunter Brown	T1 · Slugger	0.671	0.800	0.84x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 4.16 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Mitch Bratt		T1 · Slugger	1.209	0.974	1.24x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.97 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data