Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-20

2026-08-20

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

9games
26picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE1 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.9.
FAVORITES0 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS6 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ CIN12:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity69%
Wind4 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.3% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
JJ WetherholtSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +season fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jimmy CrooksSTLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +6.2% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Michael TogliaCINT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sal StewartCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady Singer
lineup expected to homer 1.26 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TOR @ TB1:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity68%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ian Seymour
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
SF @ CLE1:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.3% carry
CF12 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity52%
Wind12 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity43%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Andrew VaughnMILT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.30x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.6% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity51%
Wind5 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.3% over normal 1.10x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Randy Dobnak
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Gage Jump
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
ATL @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park71°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity62%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sean MurphyATLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +1.6% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park69°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity83%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan BeaversBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.8% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle Bradish
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.39 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
WSH @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park90°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity33%
Wind5 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity83%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.8% over normal 1.15x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.3% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data