Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-20

2026-08-20

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-19 all nights

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.149	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Alec Burleson	STL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.150	1.22x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
JJ Wetherholt	STL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.118	1.35x	+park factor, +season fly-ball rate	no grade — game not played
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.090	1.69x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
William Contreras	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.33x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
José Tena	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+season hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Dylan Beavers	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no grade — game not played

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Michael Toglia	CIN	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.086	1.36x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.54x	+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate	no grade — game not played
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.071	1.30x	+park factor, −pull tendency	no grade — game not played
Sean Murphy	ATL	T5 · Longshot	0.086	0.065	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.149	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.107	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.090	1.69x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
William Contreras	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.108	1.33x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Cam Smith	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.124	1.15x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Lawrence Butler	ATH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.127	1.10x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
José Tena	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.094	1.49x	+season hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Dylan Beavers	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.100	1.40x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no grade — game not played

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.275	1.06x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.248	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.228	1.06x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.235	0.237	0.99x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no grade — game not played
Pete Alonso	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.215	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no grade — game not played
Jake Bauers	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.187	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played
Sal Stewart	CIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.203	0.99x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Rafael Devers	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.196	0.98x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	no grade — game not played
Samuel Basallo	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.182	1.05x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no grade — game not played

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Ian Seymour	T1 · Slugger	0.897	1.043	0.86x	strong suppression spot	no grade — game not played
Randy Dobnak	T1 · Slugger	0.848	1.012	0.84x	strong suppression spot	no grade — game not played
Gage Jump	T1 · Slugger	0.799	0.965	0.83x	strong suppression spot	no grade — game not played

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Brady Singer		T1 · Slugger	1.259	1.076	1.17x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	no grade — game not played

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-19. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data