Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-12

2026-09-12

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Aaron Judgetop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS9 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

COL @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.3% carry
CF9 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity56%
Wind9 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.135 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm76°85% rh7mph1% rain
2pm78°76% rh7mph0% rain
3pm80°70% rh7mph1% rain
4pm81°68% rh8mph2% rain
5pm83°56% rh9mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.5% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ezequiel TovarCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jordan BeckCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.0% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYM @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF11 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity60%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm80°56% rh8mph0% rain
2pm80°55% rh10mph0% rain
3pm78°54% rh12mph0% rain
4pm78°56% rh10mph0% rain
5pm76°60% rh11mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Aaron JudgeNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.1% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Heliot RamosNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +8.3% over normal 1.70x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +8.4% over normal 1.86x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.1% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Anthony VolpeNYYT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.9% over normal 1.89x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Francisco LindorNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Zach Thornton
lineup expected to homer 1.56 times vs 1.20 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
PIT @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity49%
Wind8 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm86°49% rh10mph1% rain
3pm87°46% rh10mph0% rain
4pm87°45% rh9mph1% rain
5pm86°41% rh10mph2% rain
6pm84°49% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Konnor GriffinPITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.6% over normal 1.18x · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 1.31 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
BAL @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park71°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

3pm78°64% rh5mph0% rain
4pm77°62% rh6mph0% rain
5pm75°68% rh7mph1% rain
6pm73°73% rh6mph2% rain
7pm71°78% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.8% over normal 1.29x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle Bradish
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
LAA @ WSH4:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park76°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity89%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm79°79% rh5mph8% rain
5pm78°89% rh6mph7% rain
6pm79°82% rh7mph7% rain
7pm77°84% rh7mph6% rain
8pm76°89% rh7mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.6% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SD @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park60°F, wind 15 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF15 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity78%
Wind15 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm66°65% rh18mph0% rain
5pm65°69% rh18mph0% rain
6pm63°74% rh18mph0% rain
7pm62°76% rh18mph0% rain
8pm60°78% rh15mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.3% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Michael King
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
4 HR allowed
CLE @ MIN4:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity39%
Wind7 mph
Pressure985 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm74°32% rh13mph0% rain
5pm74°31% rh13mph0% rain
6pm72°32% rh12mph0% rain
7pm69°36% rh9mph0% rain
8pm66°39% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.7% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance20%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm85°78% rh8mph21% rain
5pm85°74% rh3mph24% rain
6pm85°76% rh6mph23% rain
7pm79°85% rh7mph22% rain
8pm78°87% rh4mph20% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.77x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
KC @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity54%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.207 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm73°46% rh9mph0% rain
5pm71°58% rh8mph0% rain
6pm70°58% rh7mph0% rain
7pm68°61% rh4mph0% rain
8pm67°54% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ TB6:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park81°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF5 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity90%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm85°79% rh5mph13% rain
7pm83°84% rh3mph15% rain
8pm82°87% rh3mph15% rain
9pm81°88% rh5mph12% rain
10pm81°90% rh5mph11% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Daulton VarshoHOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.0% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ MIL7:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity57%
Wind6 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm76°65% rh6mph1% rain
8pm74°69% rh5mph1% rain
9pm72°72% rh6mph0% rain
10pm70°58% rh6mph0% rain
11pm68°57% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.1% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ STL7:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity77%
Wind3 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm85°53% rh3mph0% rain
8pm81°68% rh5mph0% rain
9pm80°69% rh4mph1% rain
10pm78°72% rh4mph0% rain
11pm76°77% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sean Newcomb
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
PHI @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity91%
Wind4 mph
Pressure980 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm80°85% rh2mph6% rain
8pm78°87% rh3mph2% rain
9pm76°89% rh3mph1% rain
10pm75°90% rh3mph1% rain
11pm75°91% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +7.0% over normal 1.66x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.7% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.5% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ AZ8:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park88°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity48%
Wind2 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.101 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm93°44% rh3mph3% rain
9pm92°46% rh2mph2% rain
10pm91°45% rh5mph2% rain
11pm90°46% rh5mph2% rain
12am91°42% rh0mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +2.7% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park60°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity67%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm67°56% rh8mph0% rain
10pm65°59% rh4mph0% rain
11pm63°62% rh4mph0% rain
12am62°65% rh5mph0% rain
1am62°66% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.6% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data