Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-23

2026-09-23

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
37picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

HOU @ SEA10:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park51°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp51°F
Humidity75%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.246 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

10pm53°69% rh5mph0% rain
11pm52°70% rh6mph0% rain
12am52°73% rh4mph0% rain
1am51°71% rh4mph0% rain
2am51°78% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +7.4% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh NaylorSEAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +SP career barrels allowed
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park63°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF1 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity92%
Wind1 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm67°92% rh4mph0% rain
11pm66°92% rh3mph0% rain
12am69°92% rh3mph0% rain
1am70°90% rh3mph0% rain
2am67°92% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.1% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.4% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dustin HarrisSDT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.8% carry
CF14 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity57%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.200 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm60°80% rh13mph2% rain
2pm63°70% rh12mph14% rain
3pm62°57% rh15mph19% rain
4pm63°61% rh13mph19% rain
5pm64°57% rh14mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

John PeckDETT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.36x · ATS
−pull tendency, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ SF3:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF12 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity54%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.196 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm75°54% rh10mph0% rain
4pm73°56% rh12mph0% rain
5pm71°54% rh14mph0% rain
6pm70°56% rh14mph0% rain
7pm68°54% rh12mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.5% over normal 1.04x · ATS
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor Prielipp
lineup expected to homer 0.60 times vs 0.82 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TOR @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park56°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -7.3% carry
CF9 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity78%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1028 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.245 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm62°68% rh10mph1% rain
7pm60°76% rh9mph1% rain
8pm58°75% rh9mph0% rain
9pm56°76% rh9mph0% rain
10pm56°78% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Sean KeysTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.2% over normal 1.66x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 11 games
no
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.9% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park55°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.7% carry
CF7 mph
Temp55°F
Humidity78%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm63°62% rh9mph2% rain
7pm60°71% rh8mph2% rain
8pm58°75% rh7mph1% rain
9pm56°78% rh6mph1% rain
10pm55°78% rh7mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
JJ WetherholtSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+lineup slot, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP workload
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park58°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -7.2% carry
CF11 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity68%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1029 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.241 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm64°52% rh13mph0% rain
7pm62°61% rh11mph0% rain
8pm60°63% rh13mph0% rain
9pm59°65% rh11mph0% rain
10pm58°68% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Bryson StottPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Aaron Nola
lineup expected to homer 1.16 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
TB @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park56°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -6.8% carry
CF12 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity69%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1031 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.249 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm63°50% rh9mph0% rain
8pm61°51% rh11mph0% rain
9pm59°58% rh11mph0% rain
10pm57°65% rh11mph0% rain
11pm56°69% rh12mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +5.6% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heliot RamosNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.3% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ian Seymour
lineup expected to homer 1.19 times vs 0.95 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
not yet graded
CLE @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park50°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -6.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp50°F
Humidity78%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1033 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.266 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm56°70% rh9mph0% rain
8pm54°74% rh6mph0% rain
9pm53°76% rh5mph0% rain
10pm51°78% rh5mph0% rain
11pm50°78% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.6% over normal 1.71x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+pull tendency, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.7% carry
CF12 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity80%
Wind12 mph
Pressure984 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°71% rh11mph0% rain
8pm71°72% rh10mph0% rain
9pm69°76% rh12mph0% rain
10pm67°78% rh12mph0% rain
11pm66°80% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Chris Sale
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CWS @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity70%
Wind8 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm71°57% rh7mph0% rain
8pm68°61% rh8mph0% rain
9pm67°64% rh9mph0% rain
10pm65°67% rh8mph0% rain
11pm64°70% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TeelCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.9% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park60°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.7% carry
CF11 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity71%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.207 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm62°81% rh8mph0% rain
8pm62°75% rh12mph0% rain
9pm61°77% rh12mph0% rain
10pm61°75% rh11mph0% rain
11pm60°71% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.2% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.1% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park85°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity49%
Wind6 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm88°46% rh5mph3% rain
9pm88°46% rh3mph3% rain
10pm86°48% rh3mph4% rain
11pm86°48% rh6mph4% rain
12am83°57% rh8mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bo BichetteNYMT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.9% over normal 1.19x · ATS
−pull tendency, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park62°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity78%
Wind5 mph
Pressure846 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.011 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm66°63% rh6mph18% rain
9pm64°68% rh5mph11% rain
10pm64°67% rh4mph13% rain
11pm63°75% rh7mph11% rain
12am62°78% rh3mph8% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corbin CarrollAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.1% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cole CarriggCOLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.9% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.3% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.204 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm73°38% rh6mph0% rain
10pm70°50% rh5mph0% rain
11pm67°58% rh5mph0% rain
12am63°60% rh2mph0% rain
1am62°62% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian MooreLAAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.9% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike TroutLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Walbert Ureña
lineup expected to homer 0.69 times vs 0.82 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data