Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-24

2026-09-24

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

12games
36picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE1 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS6 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SD @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity97%
Wind3 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm69°90% rh1mph0% rain
11pm69°90% rh2mph0% rain
12am67°93% rh3mph0% rain
1am66°96% rh2mph0% rain
2am66°97% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.5% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dustin HarrisSDT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.7% over normal 1.72x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.6% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
STL @ PIT12:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.7% carry
CF9 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity45%
Wind9 mph
Pressure999 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm62°56% rh7mph0% rain
1pm64°52% rh8mph0% rain
2pm66°44% rh8mph0% rain
3pm65°44% rh8mph0% rain
4pm66°45% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.2% over normal 1.10x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CWS @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.3% carry
CF9 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity48%
Wind9 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm77°50% rh6mph0% rain
3pm78°46% rh7mph1% rain
4pm78°43% rh8mph1% rain
5pm78°45% rh8mph1% rain
6pm76°48% rh9mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bobby Witt Jr.KCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park65°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity69%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.193 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm67°56% rh10mph0% rain
3pm67°60% rh10mph0% rain
4pm67°55% rh7mph0% rain
5pm67°61% rh8mph0% rain
6pm65°69% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.8% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Agustín RamírezMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.0% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park92°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF8 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity38%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.124 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

2pm92°45% rh2mph0% rain
3pm93°42% rh4mph0% rain
4pm94°41% rh6mph0% rain
5pm94°39% rh7mph0% rain
6pm92°38% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh JungTEXT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.1% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.5% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS
+career hard-hit rate, −platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park68°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity47%
Wind4 mph
Pressure847 mb
Rain chance8%
Air density1.002 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm71°44% rh5mph4% rain
4pm72°45% rh4mph4% rain
5pm72°45% rh4mph7% rain
6pm72°45% rh4mph7% rain
7pm68°47% rh4mph8% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Corbin CarrollAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tim TawaAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.3% over normal 2.08x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tanner Gordon
lineup expected to homer 1.37 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
MIL @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -6.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity61%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1024 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.233 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm64°52% rh11mph0% rain
7pm62°56% rh5mph0% rain
8pm60°57% rh5mph0% rain
9pm60°59% rh7mph0% rain
10pm58°61% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.60x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.6% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.5% over normal 1.18x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ BOS6:45 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park50°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp50°F
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1026 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.257 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm60°52% rh9mph0% rain
7pm56°54% rh5mph0% rain
8pm54°58% rh5mph0% rain
9pm52°67% rh4mph0% rain
10pm50°77% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.8% over normal 1.74x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TB @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park55°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -6.0% carry
CF10 mph
Temp55°F
Humidity55%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1024 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.243 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm63°46% rh8mph0% rain
8pm61°48% rh9mph0% rain
9pm59°47% rh8mph0% rain
10pm57°51% rh9mph0% rain
11pm55°55% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heliot RamosNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.3% over normal 1.64x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Anthony VolpeNYYT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.7% over normal 1.88x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Paul GoldschmidtNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.2% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cam Schlittler
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park63°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity80%
Wind8 mph
Pressure984 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm69°66% rh7mph0% rain
8pm66°73% rh5mph0% rain
9pm64°77% rh3mph1% rain
10pm64°82% rh3mph2% rain
11pm63°80% rh8mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +7.1% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.3% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tyler Mahle
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
LAA @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park53°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp53°F
Humidity96%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Rain chance73%
Air density1.223 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm54°86% rh3mph39% rain
10pm54°89% rh5mph40% rain
11pm54°94% rh4mph43% rain
12am55°92% rh4mph92% rain
1am55°94% rh3mph86% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.0% over normal 1.12x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park63°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity46%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.207 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°37% rh6mph0% rain
10pm69°40% rh5mph0% rain
11pm67°42% rh5mph0% rain
12am65°51% rh4mph0% rain
1am62°58% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +6.0% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Peter Lambert
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data