Sparrow Data
2026-07-18
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-17 all nights 2026-07-19 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.132 | 1.71x | +SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Jake Bauers | MIL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.188 | 1.20x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.150 | 1.35x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.138 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.143 | 1.31x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.131 | 1.39x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.129 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Austin Wells | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.128 | 1.27x | +park factor, −lineup slot | not yet graded |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Dansby Swanson | CHC | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.125 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Carlos Cortes | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.105 | 1.52x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.117 | 1.36x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.118 | 1.29x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.094 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +pull tendency | not yet graded |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.092 | 1.52x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.089 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | HOME RUN |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.058 | 2.04x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Max Schuemann | NYY | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.063 | 1.65x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Logan O'Hoppe | LAA | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.071 | 1.48x | +career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Edouard Julien | COL | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.055 | 1.62x | +career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.068 | 1.30x | +park factor, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.060 | 1.34x | −SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.40 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.275 | 1.06x | +SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.132 | 1.71x | +SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.150 | 1.35x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.138 | 1.39x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.143 | 1.31x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.131 | 1.39x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Carlos Cortes | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.105 | 1.52x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.118 | 1.29x | −park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.089 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | HOME RUN |
| Jared Young | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.115 | 1.22x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.100 | 1.23x | +pull tendency, +career barrel rate | no |
| Cam Smith | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.096 | 1.28x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.058 | 2.04x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.068 | 1.30x | +park factor, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.70 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.275 | 1.06x | +SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.276 | 0.92x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.253 | 0.95x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Shea Langeliers | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.236 | 1.02x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.274 | 0.88x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.132 | 1.71x | +SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Jake Bauers | MIL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.188 | 1.20x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.12 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | T1 · Slugger | 1.029 | 1.261 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Patrick Sandoval | T1 · Slugger | 0.909 | 1.043 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | 2 HR allowed | |
| Dustin May | T1 · Slugger | 0.894 | 1.019 | 0.88x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 3.32 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | T1 · Slugger | 0.877 | 0.741 | 1.18x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.74 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.