Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-18

2026-07-18

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
32picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

WSH @ ATH10:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park89°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity19%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Carlos CortesATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.9% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shea LangeliersATHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.5% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ LAA10:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity59%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.3% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kevin McGonigleDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.4% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Grayson Rodriguez
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 0.74 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
MIN @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park85°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.7% carry
CF13 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity75%
Wind13 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.127 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dansby SwansonCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.3% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+pull tendency, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ PHI3:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park88°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.6% carry
CF9 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity69%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jared YoungNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.6% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-2.1% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.7% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity91%
Wind9 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +1.6% over normal 1.06x · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.3% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Davis Martin
lineup expected to homer 1.03 times vs 1.26 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park93°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity28%
Wind2 mph
Pressure849 mb
Air density0.957 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +9.4% over normal 1.71x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP career barrels allowed, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.4% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ MIL4:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +2.3% carry
CF14 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity67%
Wind14 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.8% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.5% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ KC4:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park88°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity65%
Wind6 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.113 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.3% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.4% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ HOU4:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park92°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity68%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.7% over normal 1.28x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF10 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity87%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ceddanne RafaelaBOST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.30x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaTBT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.1% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
TEX @ ATL4:10 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity52%
Wind7 mph
Pressure979 mb
Air density1.103 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.64x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ AZ4:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity74%
Wind8 mph
Pressure974 mb
Air density1.109 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.0% over normal 2.04x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dustin May
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
PIT @ CLE7:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.7% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity80%
Wind8 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.131 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.5% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ SEA8:08 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park71°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity62%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.197 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.4% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan McMahonNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.1% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Max SchuemannNYYT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data