Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-25

2026-08-25

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
39picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 5 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

BOS @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity75%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm87°61% rh8mph4% rain
7pm85°65% rh7mph3% rain
8pm82°70% rh7mph2% rain
9pm81°74% rh5mph4% rain
10pm80°75% rh3mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +7.3% over normal 1.53x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Payton Tolle
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TB @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity74%
Wind5 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm79°45% rh9mph1% rain
7pm78°43% rh8mph0% rain
8pm74°53% rh7mph0% rain
9pm70°68% rh6mph0% rain
10pm68°74% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer TorkelsonDETT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.3% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.2% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jackson Jobe
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
COL @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm82°42% rh6mph0% rain
7pm80°45% rh3mph0% rain
8pm77°49% rh4mph0% rain
9pm74°56% rh5mph0% rain
10pm72°59% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorbit VivasWSHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.6% over normal 1.49x · ATS
−recent hard-hit rate, −season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity77%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.200 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm77°53% rh7mph1% rain
8pm74°60% rh4mph2% rain
9pm72°64% rh5mph1% rain
10pm70°72% rh5mph1% rain
11pm68°77% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
KC @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park64°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity78%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.201 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm70°75% rh2mph1% rain
8pm67°85% rh2mph0% rain
9pm65°83% rh3mph0% rain
10pm64°78% rh3mph0% rain
11pm64°78% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Salvador PerezKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Carter JensenKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bobby Witt Jr.KCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.9% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, −platoon edge
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.7% over normal 1.15x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max Scherzer
lineup expected to homer 1.22 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
MIL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park67°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity80%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.201 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm76°53% rh5mph1% rain
8pm73°59% rh4mph2% rain
9pm71°67% rh5mph3% rain
10pm69°74% rh5mph0% rain
11pm67°80% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.6% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
LAD @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity52%
Wind3 mph
Pressure979 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.136 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm88°38% rh7mph1% rain
8pm85°40% rh6mph1% rain
9pm81°45% rh4mph1% rain
10pm79°51% rh3mph1% rain
11pm78°52% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.63x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.9% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +2.5% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce Elder
lineup expected to homer 1.35 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
TEX @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park65°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity72%
Wind7 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm72°64% rh8mph0% rain
8pm69°72% rh7mph0% rain
9pm67°70% rh6mph0% rain
10pm66°71% rh6mph1% rain
11pm65°72% rh7mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brenton DoyleCWST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.36x · ATS
+pull tendency, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.2% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.159 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm85°49% rh6mph1% rain
8pm82°53% rh4mph1% rain
9pm79°58% rh4mph1% rain
10pm78°62% rh4mph1% rain
11pm76°64% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF1 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity84%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm76°74% rh5mph1% rain
10pm74°82% rh5mph1% rain
11pm73°84% rh3mph0% rain
12am75°75% rh1mph0% rain
1am75°75% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Moisés BallesterosLAAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Walbert Ureña
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.86 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
PHI @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park62°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity86%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.214 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm69°68% rh5mph0% rain
10pm66°74% rh6mph0% rain
11pm64°79% rh5mph0% rain
12am61°87% rh4mph0% rain
1am61°84% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.1% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park70°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF1 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity93%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm74°81% rh2mph1% rain
10pm73°84% rh2mph0% rain
11pm72°88% rh2mph0% rain
12am73°90% rh2mph0% rain
1am73°92% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT4 · The Field
we say 13% +2.5% over normal 1.22x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity50%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm78°34% rh6mph0% rain
10pm74°39% rh6mph0% rain
11pm72°43% rh5mph0% rain
12am68°53% rh4mph0% rain
1am66°60% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jeff McNeilATHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.7% over normal 1.95x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-4.3% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gage Jump
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 1.25 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CHC @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.9% carry
CF6 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity20%
Wind6 mph
Pressure968 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.099 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm98°16% rh5mph0% rain
10pm96°17% rh4mph0% rain
11pm93°18% rh2mph0% rain
12am98°21% rh4mph0% rain
1am95°23% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.8% over normal 1.89x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park59°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity92%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.219 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm62°82% rh10mph0% rain
10pm61°85% rh6mph0% rain
11pm60°88% rh6mph0% rain
12am58°92% rh8mph0% rain
1am58°92% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.0% over normal 1.00x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Adrian Houser
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data