Sparrow Data
2026-07-27
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-26 all nights 2026-07-28 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | WSH | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.209 | 1.22x | +recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.144 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jorge Soler | LAA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.143 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.112 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.119 | 1.57x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.145 | 1.30x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Nathaniel Lowe | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.139 | 1.31x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Gabriel Arias | CLE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.131 | 1.40x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.117 | 1.39x | +recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.125 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Dylan Crews | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.123 | 1.32x | +SP strikeout rate, +recent fly-ball rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.127 | 1.26x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Mitch Garver | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.124 | 1.29x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.121 | 1.27x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.102 | 1.38x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.85 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Tena | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.085 | 1.46x | −recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Max Schuemann | NYY | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.066 | 1.59x | +recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Romy Gonzalez | BOS | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.075 | 1.33x | −pull tendency, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Jose Trevino | CIN | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.066 | 1.34x | +park factor, −career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.067 | 1.32x | −SP career HR rate, −park factor | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.13 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | WSH | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.209 | 1.22x | +recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Jorge Soler | LAA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.143 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.112 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.119 | 1.57x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Gabriel Arias | CLE | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.131 | 1.40x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.117 | 1.39x | +recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.125 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Mitch Garver | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.124 | 1.29x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.136 | 1.17x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Taylor Ward | BAL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.115 | 1.07x | +career barrel rate, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.067 | 1.32x | −SP career HR rate, −park factor | no |
| Chase Meidroth | CWS | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.078 | 1.03x | −SP career barrels allowed, +park factor | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.35 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.254 | 1.00x | +SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| James Wood | WSH | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.209 | 1.22x | +recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.83x | −park factor, +SP strikeout rate | not yet graded |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.203 | 1.12x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.186 | 1.13x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.144 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| JJ Bleday | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.183 | 1.15x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Nick Kurtz | ATH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.203 | 1.04x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.261 | 0.81x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.246 | 0.82x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.69 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | T1 · Slugger | 1.047 | 1.243 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Tyler Mahle | T1 · Slugger | 0.976 | 1.104 | 0.88x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Walbert Ureña | T1 · Slugger | 0.971 | 1.129 | 0.86x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Andrew Alvarez | T1 · Slugger | 0.743 | 0.884 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | not yet graded |
Section that night: 1 home run against 3.48 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | T1 · Slugger | 1.105 | 0.923 | 1.20x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.