Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-27

2026-07-27

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

12games
31picks
James Woodtop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 2 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.1.
AROUND SLATE0 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SEA @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park96°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity47%
Wind8 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.107 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mitch GarverSEAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity63%
Wind8 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.124 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.7% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
PHI @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity73%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.5% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.4% carry
CF11 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity67%
Wind11 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Taylor WardBALT4 · The Field
we say 12% +0.8% over normal 1.07x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park89°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity45%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

James WoodWSHT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +4.6% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +recent fly-ball rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.46x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Andrew Alvarez
lineup expected to homer 0.74 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
not yet graded
ATL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park80°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.8% carry
CF13 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity65%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.7% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.6% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.4% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity98%
Wind6 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Max SchuemannNYYT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Chase MeidrothCWST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +0.3% over normal 1.03x · ATS
−SP career barrels allowed, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-5.0% over normal 0.81x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Max Fried
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 1.24 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CHC @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park93°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity59%
Wind8 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.110 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.2% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity62%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge SolerLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.9% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-4.3% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Walbert Ureña
lineup expected to homer 0.97 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
BOS @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity32%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.8% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Romy GonzalezBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.33x · SLEEPERS
−pull tendency, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Nick KurtzATHT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.8% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
MIL @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.1% carry
CF16 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity73%
Wind16 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.200 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.3% over normal 1.17x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tyler Mahle
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.10 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nathaniel LoweCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gabriel AriasCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.2% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chase DeLauterCLET3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.2% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jose TrevinoCINT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
JJ BledayCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.7% over normal 1.15x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +lineup slot
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chase Burns
lineup expected to homer 1.10 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data