Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-28

2026-08-28

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
33picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 5 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

AZ @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF12 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity94%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.227 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm59°86% rh11mph0% rain
11pm58°89% rh11mph0% rain
12am58°90% rh11mph1% rain
1am58°92% rh7mph1% rain
2am57°96% rh8mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.5% over normal 2.05x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CIN @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park77°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity64%
Wind9 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm78°66% rh9mph2% rain
3pm78°58% rh10mph0% rain
4pm78°57% rh10mph0% rain
5pm78°60% rh11mph0% rain
6pm77°64% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.4% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity64%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm77°41% rh7mph0% rain
7pm76°39% rh6mph0% rain
8pm74°46% rh3mph0% rain
9pm70°59% rh4mph0% rain
10pm67°64% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.0% over normal 1.20x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tarik Skubal
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.15 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park75°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity85%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm80°81% rh7mph4% rain
7pm78°84% rh4mph3% rain
8pm76°87% rh3mph1% rain
9pm76°87% rh3mph0% rain
10pm75°85% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +9.1% over normal 1.67x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Xavier EdwardsMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.46x · SLEEPERS
−season hard-hit rate, −career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ TB7:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity88%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm83°82% rh3mph7% rain
8pm80°88% rh4mph6% rain
9pm80°89% rh3mph5% rain
10pm79°88% rh4mph4% rain
11pm79°88% rh3mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Casey Mize
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
HOU @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity81%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.195 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°92% rh8mph3% rain
8pm73°89% rh3mph1% rain
9pm73°92% rh2mph0% rain
10pm72°92% rh3mph0% rain
11pm70°81% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Daulton VarshoHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.3% over normal 1.20x · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.5% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
KC @ CLE7:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity53%
Wind4 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°46% rh7mph0% rain
8pm70°49% rh4mph0% rain
9pm67°53% rh4mph0% rain
10pm65°54% rh4mph0% rain
11pm64°53% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.4% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.9% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ TOR7:15 PMRogers Centreneutral park60°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity77%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.214 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm66°66% rh1mph0% rain
8pm64°76% rh1mph1% rain
9pm63°75% rh4mph0% rain
10pm61°78% rh1mph0% rain
11pm60°77% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.8% over normal 1.70x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dylan Cease
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.12 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
BOS @ NYY7:15 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity74%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.198 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°91% rh5mph1% rain
8pm73°90% rh3mph0% rain
9pm73°92% rh3mph0% rain
10pm72°85% rh5mph0% rain
11pm70°74% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nick SogardBOST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
COL @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity87%
Wind2 mph
Pressure980 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm81°66% rh4mph23% rain
8pm80°67% rh4mph19% rain
9pm78°71% rh2mph14% rain
10pm76°81% rh4mph14% rain
11pm75°87% rh2mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.2% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.8% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.0% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +9.8% over normal 2.09x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.2% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.45 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TEX @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity80%
Wind3 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm75°64% rh9mph0% rain
8pm72°68% rh6mph0% rain
9pm69°76% rh4mph0% rain
10pm68°79% rh4mph0% rain
11pm66°80% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ MIN8:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph
Pressure985 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm78°27% rh5mph2% rain
9pm75°32% rh5mph3% rain
10pm72°42% rh4mph7% rain
11pm72°47% rh4mph6% rain
12am71°66% rh5mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake RogersCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ STL8:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity52%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.179 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm78°40% rh5mph0% rain
9pm75°43% rh3mph0% rain
10pm73°48% rh1mph0% rain
11pm71°51% rh0mph0% rain
12am68°73% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Oneil CruzPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared Jones
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
PHI @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity88%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm80°70% rh5mph1% rain
10pm78°79% rh6mph1% rain
11pm77°74% rh5mph1% rain
12am77°85% rh5mph0% rain
1am77°80% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.26x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity52%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.205 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm72°38% rh5mph1% rain
10pm69°42% rh5mph1% rain
11pm67°44% rh4mph0% rain
12am65°64% rh6mph0% rain
1am64°70% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Gunnar HendersonBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jonah HeimATHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.5% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data