Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-07

2026-08-07

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-06 all nights 2026-08-08 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.133	1.70x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.144	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.156	1.20x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.146	1.25x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.37x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Dylan Crews	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.31x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.106	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.104	1.37x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Davis Schneider	TOR	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.106	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.098	1.37x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.48 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.081	1.52x	−recent fly-ball rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.086	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.062	1.89x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
Hunter Feduccia	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.057	1.75x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.051	1.73x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.053	1.68x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.19 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.133	1.70x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.120	1.52x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.38x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.116	1.37x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.136	1.18x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.106	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	HOME RUN
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.133	1.07x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.135	1.05x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.116	1.21x	−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.109	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no
Jake Rogers	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.086	1.43x	+career barrel rate, −season hard-hit rate	no
Bryson Stott	PHI	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.100	1.17x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Hunter Feduccia	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.057	1.75x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.053	1.68x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.52 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.238	0.96x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.257	0.88x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.240	0.94x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.225	0.133	1.70x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.254	0.83x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.191	1.06x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.236	0.86x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Brandon Lowe	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.201	0.209	0.96x	+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.156	1.20x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.40 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Cade Cavalli	T1 · Slugger	1.054	1.262	0.84x	strong suppression spot	3 HR allowed
Keider Montero	T1 · Slugger	0.999	1.166	0.86x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed
Kyle Leahy	T1 · Slugger	0.923	1.077	0.86x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Zack Wheeler	T1 · Slugger	0.806	0.947	0.85x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 7 home runs against 4.45 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Zebby Matthews		T1 · Slugger	0.957	0.839	1.14x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed
George Klassen		T1 · Slugger	0.705	0.573	1.23x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.41 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data