Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-07

2026-08-07

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Ben Ricetop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS7 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

DET @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity100%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.226 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.2% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.4% over normal 1.18x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Keider Montero
lineup expected to homer 1.00 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
NYM @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity80%
Wind4 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.4% over normal 1.21x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.4% over normal 0.86x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon LowePITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity79%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Davis SchneiderTORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Bryson StottPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.7% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zack Wheeler
lineup expected to homer 0.81 times vs 0.95 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
CIN @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park78°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF1 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity84%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cade Cavalli
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 1.26 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
ATL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity92%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.3% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ MIA7:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +9.3% over normal 1.70x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.89x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
George Klassen
lineup expected to homer 0.71 times vs 0.57 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
ATH @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity70%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake RogersBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.43x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.6% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity63%
Wind9 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Garrett MitchellMILT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Zebby Matthews
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
CLE @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity84%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-4.4% over normal 0.83x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CHC @ KC8:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.7% over normal 1.05x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ TEX8:15 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park89°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity40%
Wind7 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.128 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 13% +2.5% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −recent fly-ball rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
COL @ STL8:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 0 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF0 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity87%
Wind0 mph
Pressure999 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.6% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle Leahy
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
HOU @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.8% carry
CF2 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity91%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.7% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park94°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity28%
Wind7 mph
Pressure971 mb
Air density1.094 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.75x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.8% over normal 1.73x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.0% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ SEA9:45 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park63°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF2 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity77%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.0% over normal 1.07x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.0% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data