Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-23

2026-08-23

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
41picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ PHI1:35 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF9 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity45%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm78°69% rh9mph3% rain
2pm79°64% rh9mph1% rain
3pm81°53% rh10mph4% rain
4pm82°48% rh10mph0% rain
5pm82°45% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.5% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.72 times vs 0.83 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
TOR @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.8% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity66%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm79°69% rh8mph3% rain
2pm78°70% rh9mph7% rain
3pm78°72% rh9mph11% rain
4pm79°69% rh9mph9% rain
5pm78°66% rh9mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.79x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José Soriano
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.38 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
TB @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park83°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity38%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm81°58% rh9mph0% rain
2pm83°44% rh9mph0% rain
3pm84°40% rh9mph0% rain
4pm84°39% rh9mph0% rain
5pm83°38% rh10mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jackson HollidayBALT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Leody TaverasBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.1% over normal 1.42x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.0% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park87°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity74%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance18%
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm88°87% rh11mph1% rain
2pm90°67% rh12mph5% rain
3pm89°66% rh13mph8% rain
4pm88°70% rh9mph9% rain
5pm87°74% rh2mph18% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.3% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
DET @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity30%
Wind5 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm83°28% rh3mph1% rain
3pm84°29% rh4mph3% rain
4pm83°29% rh6mph5% rain
5pm83°28% rh6mph8% rain
6pm82°30% rh5mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.9% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Daniel Lynch IV
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
ATH @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park97°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF9 mph
Temp97°F
Humidity46%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.128 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm92°56% rh3mph1% rain
3pm95°49% rh3mph1% rain
4pm97°43% rh3mph2% rain
5pm99°40% rh2mph4% rain
6pm97°46% rh9mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+SP fly balls allowed, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.8% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP fly balls allowed, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF10 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity41%
Wind10 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm73°47% rh9mph0% rain
3pm74°49% rh8mph0% rain
4pm75°45% rh12mph0% rain
5pm76°38% rh12mph0% rain
6pm74°41% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Braden MontgomeryCWST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +-0.2% over normal 0.98x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.6% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nolan McLean
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.10 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
LAA @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park106°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.2% carry
CF13 mph
Temp106°F
Humidity22%
Wind13 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.090 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm107°22% rh7mph0% rain
3pm108°21% rh9mph0% rain
4pm108°21% rh7mph0% rain
5pm108°21% rh9mph0% rain
6pm106°22% rh13mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Moisés BallesterosLAAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Logan O'HoppeTEXT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.6% over normal 1.65x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
CLE @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park86°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity25%
Wind8 mph
Pressure843 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density0.966 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm93°20% rh6mph15% rain
4pm90°22% rh12mph18% rain
5pm87°26% rh12mph26% rain
6pm88°25% rh9mph16% rain
7pm86°25% rh8mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jo AdellCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +5.5% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 18% +7.3% over normal 1.70x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Nathaniel LoweCLET3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.9% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 0.97 times vs 0.75 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
SF @ BOS3:15 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity90%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm70°86% rh5mph36% rain
4pm71°82% rh3mph14% rain
5pm72°82% rh2mph7% rain
6pm72°84% rh2mph2% rain
7pm70°90% rh5mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 13% +6.9% over normal 2.05x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.9% over normal 1.13x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity70%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.209 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm70°71% rh4mph1% rain
5pm71°65% rh5mph1% rain
6pm71°62% rh5mph1% rain
7pm69°65% rh5mph1% rain
8pm66°70% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ATS
+recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park74°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF3 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity83%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm86°55% rh8mph1% rain
5pm84°57% rh7mph1% rain
6pm81°66% rh6mph1% rain
7pm77°76% rh6mph1% rain
8pm74°83% rh3mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +7.5% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.8% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ LAD4:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity60%
Wind4 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm93°33% rh9mph0% rain
5pm90°36% rh9mph0% rain
6pm87°39% rh7mph0% rain
7pm83°47% rh5mph0% rain
8pm78°60% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.1% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.78x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lake Bachar
lineup expected to homer 1.46 times vs 1.16 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
CIN @ AZ4:15 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park103°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp103°F
Humidity16%
Wind5 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.076 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm114°13% rh5mph1% rain
5pm112°14% rh9mph2% rain
6pm110°14% rh9mph5% rain
7pm106°15% rh7mph4% rain
8pm103°16% rh5mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.3% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tyler StephensonCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.9% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Gabriel MorenoAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.9% over normal 1.87x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +4.3% over normal 2.01x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sal StewartCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ MIL7:10 PMJourney Bank Ballparkpitcher-friendly park62°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — UNKNOWN carry unknown
Temp62°F
Humidity75%
Wind3 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm69°69% rh5mph3% rain
8pm66°72% rh5mph1% rain
9pm64°78% rh8mph1% rain
10pm62°78% rh5mph3% rain
11pm62°75% rh3mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.1% over normal 1.22x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.1% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data