Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-09

2026-09-09

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
33picks
Aaron Judgetop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE2 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES4 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS4 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CIN @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity57%
Wind4 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm85°43% rh2mph2% rain
11pm82°50% rh4mph2% rain
12am81°52% rh4mph1% rain
1am80°53% rh3mph1% rain
2am78°57% rh4mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.6% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.6% carry
CF11 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity80%
Wind11 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance50%
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm73°93% rh9mph30% rain
2pm72°97% rh8mph25% rain
3pm74°93% rh9mph30% rain
4pm78°82% rh12mph29% rain
5pm78°80% rh11mph50% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.0% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ ATH3:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park94°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.6% carry
CF1 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity17%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.142 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm99°17% rh6mph0% rain
4pm100°16% rh5mph1% rain
5pm99°15% rh5mph1% rain
6pm99°16% rh3mph1% rain
7pm94°17% rh1mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.8% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Braydon Fisher
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.13 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
STL @ SF3:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.2% carry
CF12 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity26%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm97°17% rh6mph1% rain
4pm90°25% rh13mph1% rain
5pm86°26% rh16mph1% rain
6pm85°25% rh15mph1% rain
7pm83°26% rh12mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.7% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Thomas SaggeseSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.4% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−park factor, −platoon edge
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andre Pallante
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TEX @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park67°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity51%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.208 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm75°40% rh7mph1% rain
5pm76°38% rh6mph1% rain
6pm75°45% rh5mph1% rain
7pm71°53% rh4mph2% rain
8pm67°51% rh4mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.6% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +4.4% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Logan O'HoppeTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.3% over normal 2.08x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.3% over normal 1.19x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
WSH @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm87°46% rh6mph3% rain
5pm91°39% rh3mph3% rain
6pm90°38% rh4mph3% rain
7pm84°49% rh3mph3% rain
8pm78°71% rh5mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.3% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Walker Buehler
lineup expected to homer 1.12 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CLE @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity52%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm89°41% rh11mph0% rain
7pm86°42% rh8mph0% rain
8pm82°48% rh6mph0% rain
9pm79°54% rh4mph0% rain
10pm78°52% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+pull tendency, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF11 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity65%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.180 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm85°48% rh10mph0% rain
7pm81°57% rh9mph0% rain
8pm79°62% rh9mph1% rain
9pm77°66% rh10mph1% rain
10pm76°65% rh11mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryson StottPHIT4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.8% over normal 1.09x · ATS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.5% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 1.06 times vs 1.24 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
NYM @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity89%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm84°77% rh6mph4% rain
7pm83°84% rh3mph5% rain
8pm81°89% rh3mph4% rain
9pm81°90% rh3mph3% rain
10pm80°89% rh2mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.2% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ BOS6:45 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park71°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF12 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity84%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm77°58% rh13mph8% rain
7pm74°71% rh12mph12% rain
8pm72°81% rh12mph22% rain
9pm70°85% rh12mph16% rain
10pm71°84% rh12mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.4% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +8.3% over normal 2.09x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
COL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity68%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.180 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm82°47% rh10mph1% rain
8pm80°48% rh9mph1% rain
9pm77°66% rh10mph1% rain
10pm76°68% rh11mph1% rain
11pm75°68% rh11mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ben RiceNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +6.2% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +7.4% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +10.3% over normal 1.95x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.6% over normal 1.70x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Aaron JudgeNYYT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +2.4% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Luis García Jr.NYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.7% over normal 1.15x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.76 times vs 1.34 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
TB @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity51%
Wind2 mph
Pressure984 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm89°37% rh5mph0% rain
8pm85°42% rh5mph0% rain
9pm83°44% rh4mph0% rain
10pm80°49% rh4mph0% rain
11pm78°51% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.70x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity65%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm78°71% rh7mph0% rain
8pm75°79% rh6mph0% rain
9pm73°80% rh6mph0% rain
10pm71°78% rh6mph0% rain
11pm70°65% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
AZ @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity82%
Wind7 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance31%
Air density1.142 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm82°70% rh5mph23% rain
8pm79°79% rh5mph23% rain
9pm77°82% rh5mph26% rain
10pm77°83% rh3mph23% rain
11pm76°82% rh7mph31% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.3% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.32x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity91%
Wind8 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm74°88% rh7mph3% rain
8pm72°89% rh6mph2% rain
9pm71°90% rh7mph0% rain
10pm71°91% rh7mph0% rain
11pm70°91% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data