Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-21

2026-07-21

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-20 all nights 2026-07-22 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.134	1.51x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Jorge Soler	LAA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.50x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.111	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Josh Jung	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Daniel Schneemann	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.092	1.52x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.84 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Karros	COL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.079	1.77x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Willi Castro	COL	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.088	1.53x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Henry Bolte	ATH	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.076	1.61x	+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate	no
Joey Ortiz	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.061	1.91x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.064	1.83x	+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.051	1.58x	+park factor, +lineup slot	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.36 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jorge Soler	LAA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.147	1.24x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.156	1.17x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Henry Davis	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.117	1.50x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.145	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.132	1.21x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.144	1.10x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
J.T. Realmuto	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.117	1.22x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Karros	COL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.079	1.77x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Taylor Trammell	HOU	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.082	1.50x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Henry Bolte	ATH	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.076	1.61x	+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate	no
Joey Ortiz	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.061	1.91x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Leody Taveras	BAL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.071	1.48x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	no
Petey Halpin	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.092	1.13x	−lineup slot, −season hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.46 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.291	0.271	1.07x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.248	1.03x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.260	0.93x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.278	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.286	0.84x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.245	0.98x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.264	0.91x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Juan Soto	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.246	0.92x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.261	0.87x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.203	1.11x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.199	1.06x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Shea Langeliers	ATH	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.223	0.94x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.232	0.91x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.94 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Parker Messick	T1 · Slugger	1.005	1.246	0.81x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Luinder Avila	T1 · Slugger	0.997	1.174	0.85x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Drew Rasmussen	T1 · Slugger	0.968	1.252	0.77x	elite suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Kevin Gausman	T1 · Slugger	0.825	0.949	0.87x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 4.62 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Zach Thornton		T1 · Slugger	1.132	1.041	1.09x	essentially neutral	0 HR allowed
Tatsuya Imai		T1 · Slugger	0.876	0.678	1.29x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.72 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data