Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-19

2026-07-19

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
33picks
Shohei Ohtanitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED6 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE4 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CWS @ TOR12:15 PMRogers Centreneutral park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity65%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.0% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-4.8% over normal 0.82x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Trey Yesavage
lineup expected to homer 1.18 times vs 1.40 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sean Burke
lineup expected to homer 1.02 times vs 1.20 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYM @ PHI1:35 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity59%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Francisco LindorNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.4% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.5% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nolan McLean
lineup expected to homer 1.22 times vs 1.33 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
TB @ BOS1:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF16 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity42%
Wind16 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.8% over normal 1.87x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ ATL1:35 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity54%
Wind3 mph
Pressure980 mb
Air density1.104 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.64x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ CLE1:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.7% carry
CF8 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity63%
Wind8 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.3% over normal 1.20x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF9 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity57%
Wind9 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +9.7% over normal 1.72x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.5% over normal 1.59x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.3% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SD @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park91°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity65%
Wind2 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.106 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.8% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park89°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity80%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Zach DezenzoHOUT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.9% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park75°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity68%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan JeffersMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.8% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dansby SwansonCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park98°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +2.4% carry
CF5 mph
Temp98°F
Humidity14%
Wind5 mph
Pressure846 mb
Air density0.947 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Edouard JulienCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.7% over normal 2.24x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ ATH4:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park88°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity33%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.9% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.8% over normal 1.18x · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity47%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.0% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kevin McGonigleDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.2% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Colt KeithDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.7% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ryan Johnson
lineup expected to homer 1.43 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
SF @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park69°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity77%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.5% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
STL @ AZ4:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park100°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp100°F
Humidity34%
Wind5 mph
Pressure972 mb
Air density1.080 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.8% over normal 1.83x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nelson VelázquezSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.6% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ NYY7:20 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity33%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +9.7% over normal 2.07x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +1.8% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.7% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Will Klein
lineup expected to homer 0.99 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data