Sparrow Data
2026-07-19
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-18 all nights 2026-07-20 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.134 | 1.72x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Heriberto Hernández | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.127 | 1.59x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.149 | 1.37x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.201 | 0.150 | 1.34x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.136 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.091 | 2.07x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.129 | 1.45x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.129 | 1.45x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Dansby Swanson | CHC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.125 | 1.47x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.116 | 1.38x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.091 | 1.57x | +park factor, +lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.094 | 1.51x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | HOME RUN |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.094 | 1.49x | +recent hard-hit rate, −SP career barrels allowed | no |
| Colt Keith | DET | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.093 | 1.51x | +park factor, +SP career barrels allowed | not yet graded |
Section that night: 6 home runs against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Tena | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.086 | 1.43x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Edouard Julien | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.054 | 2.24x | +career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.057 | 1.83x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.043 | 1.87x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.051 | 1.57x | +park factor, −recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.15 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.203 | 1.18x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.134 | 1.72x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.149 | 1.37x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.136 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.091 | 2.07x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Ryan Jeffers | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.129 | 1.45x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.129 | 1.45x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.097 | 1.64x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.091 | 1.57x | +park factor, +lineup slot | HOME RUN |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.117 | 1.20x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Zach Dezenzo | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.095 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +season barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Edouard Julien | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.054 | 2.24x | +career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.057 | 1.83x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.081 | 0.043 | 1.87x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.55 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.273 | 1.06x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.276 | 0.87x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Juan Soto | NYM | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.246 | 0.98x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.244 | 0.99x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.203 | 1.18x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.271 | 0.89x | +career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.134 | 1.72x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.274 | 0.82x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Jake Bauers | MIL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.188 | 1.12x | +career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Nelson Velázquez | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.195 | 1.08x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.248 | 0.85x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 2.36 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | T1 · Slugger | 1.224 | 1.334 | 0.92x | lean suppression | 1 HR allowed | |
| Trey Yesavage | T1 · Slugger | 1.183 | 1.399 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Sean Burke | T1 · Slugger | 1.015 | 1.204 | 0.84x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Will Klein | T1 · Slugger | 0.992 | 1.110 | 0.89x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 5.05 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johnson | T1 · Slugger | 1.432 | 1.137 | 1.26x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 2 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.14 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.