Sparrow Data
2026-08-06
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-05 all nights 2026-08-07 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.240 | 1.19x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.145 | 1.29x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Ty France | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.138 | 1.36x | +SP career HR rate, +SP HR rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.156 | 1.20x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.133 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.146 | 1.25x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.123 | 1.43x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.174 | 0.131 | 1.33x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.123 | 1.29x | +park factor, +SP fly balls allowed | HOME RUN |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.106 | 1.50x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Henry Davis | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.119 | 1.34x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.115 | 1.39x | +recent barrel rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Max Muncy | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.116 | 1.38x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.102 | 1.49x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.42x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.76 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Bolte | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.078 | 1.50x | +lineup slot, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.065 | 1.62x | +SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate | no |
| Tommy White | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.065 | 1.60x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.100 | 0.053 | 1.90x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.051 | 1.57x | −park factor, +recent barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.240 | 1.19x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.156 | 1.20x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.146 | 1.25x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.123 | 1.43x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Gunnar Henderson | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.174 | 0.131 | 1.33x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.136 | 1.19x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.106 | 1.50x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Max Muncy | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.116 | 1.38x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.116 | 1.21x | +career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.116 | 1.21x | +career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Jesús Sánchez | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.124 | 1.13x | −SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 1.26 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.240 | 1.19x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.225 | 1.01x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.257 | 0.88x | +career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.191 | 1.18x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.201 | 1.05x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.187 | 1.09x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Eugenio Suárez | CIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.172 | 1.11x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.199 | 0.96x | −SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.145 | 1.29x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.189 | 0.99x | −SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.156 | 1.20x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.96 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | T1 · Slugger | 1.067 | 1.222 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | T1 · Slugger | 0.923 | 1.030 | 0.90x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| David Peterson | T1 · Slugger | 0.907 | 1.012 | 0.90x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Michael Wacha | T1 · Slugger | 0.736 | 0.851 | 0.86x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 4.12 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | T1 · Slugger | 1.040 | 0.848 | 1.23x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.85 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.