Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-06

2026-08-06

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

11games
32picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE0 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.8 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

LAA @ BAL12:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park83°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity86%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Gunnar HendersonBALT3 · Solid
we say 17% +4.3% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.9% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ CIN12:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park91°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity40%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Air density1.131 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler StephensonCINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.6% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Max MuncyATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry BolteATHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tommy WhiteATHT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Eugenio SuárezCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.0% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ CLE1:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity64%
Wind6 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.4% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.4% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity68%
Wind9 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.0% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.4% over normal 1.21x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity93%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.6% over normal 1.13x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
David Peterson
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
DET @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park74°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity48%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.2% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.8% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
WSH @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.6% over normal 1.19x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.5% over normal 1.18x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CWS @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity87%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.0% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ranger Suarez
lineup expected to homer 1.07 times vs 1.22 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIA @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity86%
Wind5 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.3% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +5.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.6% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity94%
Wind8 mph
Pressure984 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.6% over normal 1.19x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael Wacha
lineup expected to homer 0.74 times vs 0.85 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
SD @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity33%
Wind2 mph
Pressure972 mb
Air density1.102 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ty FranceSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.0% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +SP HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Luis RengifoSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.0% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.8% over normal 1.90x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.9% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kohl Drake
lineup expected to homer 1.04 times vs 0.85 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data