Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-19

2026-08-19

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE1 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES1 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

DET @ PIT12:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity61%
Wind8 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.137 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SD @ NYM1:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park88°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity33%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +9.1% over normal 1.68x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.4% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Xander BogaertsSDT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.4% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake CronenworthSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Luis RengifoSDT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.2% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career barrels allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Robert Stock
lineup expected to homer 1.29 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
ATL @ MIN1:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity27%
Wind4 mph
Pressure985 mb
Air density1.142 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.5% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.9% carry
CF10 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity80%
Wind10 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake RogersCWST4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.0% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-2.3% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity45%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.9% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.3% over normal 1.82x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Willson ContrerasBOST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.1% over normal 1.99x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.8% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.2% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park79°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity58%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.4% over normal 1.69x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
TOR @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park82°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity84%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.3% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drew Rasmussen
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
SF @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity69%
Wind4 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.26x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.15 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
STL @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 0 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF0 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity71%
Wind0 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.3% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity70%
Wind2 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.7% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity89%
Wind4 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
WSH @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park90°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity33%
Wind9 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.122 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.45x · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
LAA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity82%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Oswald PerazaLAAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity47%
Wind5 mph
Pressure841 mb
Air density0.985 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.7% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data