Sparrow Data
Board archive — 2026-08-19
2026-08-19
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.135 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.130 | 1.41x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Alec Burleson | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.147 | 1.24x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.144 | 1.27x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.146 | 1.25x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.103 | 1.57x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.125 | 1.30x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| William Contreras | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.111 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate | no grade — game not played |
| Brett Baty | NYM | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.108 | 1.41x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.110 | 1.31x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.099 | 1.41x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.091 | 1.37x | −recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby | COL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.076 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no grade — game not played |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.062 | 1.99x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Xander Bogaerts | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.089 | 1.39x | +SP career HR rate, −platoon edge | no grade — game not played |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.068 | 1.54x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Luis Rengifo | SD | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.063 | 1.66x | +park factor, +SP career barrels allowed | no grade — game not played |
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.135 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.108 | 1.69x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.130 | 1.41x | +career hard-hit rate, +SP HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Alec Burleson | STL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.147 | 1.24x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.144 | 1.27x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.146 | 1.25x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| William Contreras | MIL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.107 | 1.49x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.111 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +recent fly-ball rate | no grade — game not played |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.110 | 1.31x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.111 | 1.26x | −park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Brady House | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.122 | 1.15x | +career hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no grade — game not played |
| Moisés Ballesteros | LAA | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.116 | 1.21x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.062 | 1.99x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Jake Rogers | CWS | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.085 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +pull tendency | no grade — game not played |
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.278 | 0.92x | +career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.239 | 1.01x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no grade — game not played |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.248 | 0.97x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.242 | 1.00x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.237 | 1.02x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no grade — game not played |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.234 | 0.97x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.135 | 1.68x | +career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no grade — game not played |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.200 | 1.05x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Griffin Conine | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.188 | 1.12x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
| Max Muncy | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.175 | 1.16x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no grade — game not played |
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | T1 · Slugger | 0.834 | 1.012 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | no grade — game not played | |
| Paul Skenes | T1 · Slugger | 0.827 | 1.041 | 0.80x | elite suppression spot | no grade — game not played | |
| Parker Messick | T1 · Slugger | 0.823 | 1.059 | 0.78x | elite suppression spot | no grade — game not played |
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Stock | T1 · Slugger | 1.290 | 1.031 | 1.25x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | no grade — game not played |
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-18. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data