Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-14

2026-09-14

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

10games
27picks
Fernando Tatis Jr.top pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.9 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CWS @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park59°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity58%
Wind4 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.203 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm67°46% rh6mph0% rain
7pm67°45% rh4mph0% rain
8pm63°50% rh4mph0% rain
9pm61°55% rh4mph0% rain
10pm59°58% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.6% over normal 1.06x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sean Newcomb
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAD @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity59%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm78°38% rh8mph0% rain
7pm76°37% rh7mph0% rain
8pm71°46% rh6mph0% rain
9pm68°53% rh5mph0% rain
10pm66°59% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Will SmithLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.4% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Tommy EdmanLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.1% over normal 1.17x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park57°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp57°F
Humidity69%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.226 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm64°65% rh6mph0% rain
8pm61°66% rh5mph0% rain
9pm60°65% rh5mph0% rain
10pm58°65% rh5mph0% rain
11pm57°69% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park62°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity60%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1024 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.224 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°48% rh9mph0% rain
8pm66°53% rh9mph0% rain
9pm65°61% rh6mph0% rain
10pm64°61% rh6mph0% rain
11pm62°60% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.61x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Carlos NarváezBALT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.2% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.3% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.3% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park61°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity93%
Wind6 mph
Pressure977 mb
Rain chance45%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm60°92% rh11mph53% rain
8pm59°96% rh10mph46% rain
9pm60°93% rh10mph30% rain
10pm61°92% rh8mph39% rain
11pm61°93% rh6mph45% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.5% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.6% over normal 1.49x · SLEEPERS
−platoon edge, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Aaron JudgeNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.2% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park65°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.4% carry
CF12 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity56%
Wind12 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°51% rh11mph0% rain
8pm68°52% rh14mph1% rain
9pm67°53% rh14mph0% rain
10pm66°55% rh13mph0% rain
11pm65°56% rh12mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael ConfortoCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.5% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.5% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF9 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity60%
Wind9 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm82°43% rh8mph0% rain
8pm79°46% rh9mph0% rain
9pm78°51% rh11mph0% rain
10pm77°55% rh11mph0% rain
11pm75°60% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.9% over normal 1.13x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Quinn Mathews
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity30%
Wind2 mph
Pressure840 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density0.992 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm77°25% rh8mph3% rain
9pm74°27% rh6mph1% rain
10pm72°30% rh5mph2% rain
11pm72°29% rh5mph1% rain
12am70°41% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +11.1% over normal 1.86x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jackson MerrillSDT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +5.8% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP career barrels allowed, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.7% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Casey Mize
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.12 times vs 0.87 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
SEA @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity87%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°84% rh5mph0% rain
10pm70°87% rh6mph0% rain
11pm70°87% rh5mph0% rain
12am70°74% rh4mph0% rain
1am70°79% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Moisés BallesterosLAAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.6% over normal 1.22x · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
MIA @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity29%
Wind4 mph
Pressure970 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.102 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm94°27% rh11mph3% rain
10pm92°28% rh9mph1% rain
11pm90°28% rh7mph5% rain
12am87°55% rh4mph13% rain
1am86°57% rh7mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 13% +7.8% over normal 2.38x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data