Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-29

2026-08-29

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

17games
34picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED0 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES1 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

AZ @ SF10:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity82%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.224 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm58°77% rh5mph0% rain
11pm57°80% rh6mph1% rain
12am57°80% rh7mph1% rain
1am56°82% rh6mph1% rain
2am56°82% rh7mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.4% over normal 2.21x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ ATH10:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park62°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity56%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.208 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm67°48% rh6mph0% rain
11pm65°51% rh5mph0% rain
12am64°64% rh7mph0% rain
1am62°68% rh7mph0% rain
2am62°65% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.1% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Leody TaverasBALT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.48x · ATS
+park factor, +recent fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ LAA10:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity87%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm79°62% rh3mph0% rain
11pm76°75% rh4mph0% rain
12am75°75% rh4mph0% rain
1am74°82% rh4mph0% rain
2am74°81% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +5.0% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.0% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
BOS @ NYY1:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park79°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.8% carry
CF6 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity31%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm77°40% rh5mph0% rain
2pm78°43% rh2mph0% rain
3pm79°32% rh7mph0% rain
4pm79°30% rh5mph0% rain
5pm79°31% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.0% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick SogardBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.3% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity35%
Wind7 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm80°53% rh8mph0% rain
2pm82°44% rh9mph0% rain
3pm83°39% rh9mph0% rain
4pm83°37% rh9mph0% rain
5pm83°35% rh7mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.1% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Blake Snell
lineup expected to homer 0.83 times vs 1.14 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CWS @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity76%
Wind6 mph
Pressure979 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.131 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm75°77% rh9mph1% rain
3pm75°81% rh8mph1% rain
4pm77°77% rh8mph1% rain
5pm78°76% rh7mph2% rain
6pm78°76% rh6mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +3.5% over normal 1.14x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake RogersCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.5% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.1% carry
CF10 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity43%
Wind10 mph
Pressure999 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm88°46% rh8mph0% rain
3pm88°42% rh7mph0% rain
4pm89°42% rh7mph0% rain
5pm88°41% rh9mph0% rain
6pm86°43% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

JJ WetherholtSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.2% over normal 1.19x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity51%
Wind9 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.153 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm81°56% rh9mph2% rain
3pm82°50% rh10mph6% rain
4pm82°47% rh10mph8% rain
5pm80°46% rh7mph11% rain
6pm78°51% rh9mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alex BregmanCHCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +recent fly-ball rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.7% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kevin Gausman
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
SEA @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park76°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.1% carry
CF12 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity51%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

3pm77°62% rh9mph5% rain
4pm77°54% rh10mph3% rain
5pm77°54% rh11mph2% rain
6pm78°48% rh13mph1% rain
7pm76°51% rh11mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.5% over normal 1.80x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ WSH4:05 PMNationals Parkneutral park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity60%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm84°43% rh3mph0% rain
5pm84°44% rh2mph0% rain
6pm83°44% rh4mph0% rain
7pm80°49% rh7mph0% rain
8pm75°60% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park61°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.5% carry
CF14 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity70%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.213 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm68°61% rh18mph0% rain
5pm67°62% rh18mph0% rain
6pm65°62% rh17mph0% rain
7pm63°66% rh17mph0% rain
8pm61°70% rh14mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.7% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.4% over normal 2.21x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SD @ TB4:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park76°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.4% carry
CF12 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity88%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance48%
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm88°62% rh6mph8% rain
5pm85°71% rh7mph21% rain
6pm80°87% rh12mph36% rain
7pm77°84% rh5mph36% rain
8pm76°88% rh12mph48% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Walker Buehler
lineup expected to homer 0.73 times vs 0.88 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
HOU @ NYM4:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity44%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1022 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.200 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm79°36% rh5mph0% rain
5pm78°32% rh5mph0% rain
6pm78°32% rh4mph0% rain
7pm76°37% rh1mph0% rain
8pm72°44% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bo BichetteNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP fly balls allowed, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared YoungNYMT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+SP fly balls allowed, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.6% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+SP fly balls allowed, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bennett Sousa
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 0.74 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
KC @ CLE4:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity53%
Wind3 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm82°41% rh3mph0% rain
5pm83°35% rh0mph0% rain
6pm82°36% rh2mph0% rain
7pm80°40% rh1mph0% rain
8pm76°53% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.4% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ ATL4:10 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity60%
Wind5 mph
Pressure982 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.127 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm83°64% rh3mph4% rain
5pm84°59% rh4mph4% rain
6pm86°53% rh3mph3% rain
7pm85°56% rh6mph1% rain
8pm82°60% rh5mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.5% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 17% +8.4% over normal 1.94x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.2% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.3% over normal 1.18x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zach Agnos
lineup expected to homer 1.45 times vs 1.25 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
BOS @ NYY7:15 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity66%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1022 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.214 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm75°38% rh5mph0% rain
8pm71°48% rh4mph0% rain
9pm69°51% rh2mph0% rain
10pm67°56% rh3mph0% rain
11pm66°66% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cody BellingerNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ MIL7:15 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity67%
Wind4 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm76°66% rh4mph6% rain
8pm73°73% rh4mph5% rain
9pm72°73% rh4mph11% rain
10pm72°68% rh5mph9% rain
11pm71°67% rh4mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.7% over normal 1.19x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Logan O'HoppeTEXT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data