Sparrow Data
2026-08-04
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-03 all nights 2026-08-05 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.245 | 1.16x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.133 | 1.44x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Mike Trout | LAA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.155 | 1.21x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.148 | 1.27x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.122 | 1.49x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Jonah Heim | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.118 | 1.35x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Jesús Sánchez | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.114 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Lawrence Butler | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.110 | 1.45x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.112 | 1.28x | +career hard-hit rate, +park factor | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.42x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.41x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.096 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Jimmy Crooks | STL | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.102 | 1.37x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | not yet graded |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.102 | 1.31x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.092 | 1.46x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.61 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.061 | 2.02x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jeff McNeil | ATH | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.059 | 1.76x | +park factor, −season hard-hit rate | no |
| Travis d'Arnaud | LAA | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.055 | 1.67x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Masyn Winn | STL | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.056 | 1.65x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.050 | 1.60x | +park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.054 | 1.48x | +park factor, −platoon edge | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.041 | 1.94x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.32 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.122 | 1.49x | +recent hard-hit rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.164 | 1.11x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Jesús Sánchez | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.114 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Lawrence Butler | ATH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.110 | 1.45x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.138 | 1.15x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.42x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.41x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.097 | 1.44x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.123 | 1.14x | +recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.102 | 1.31x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Blaze Jordan | STL | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.061 | 2.02x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Travis d'Arnaud | LAA | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.055 | 1.67x | +park factor, +recent barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Jordan Beck | COL | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.063 | 1.41x | +career barrel rate, +playing time | no |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.050 | 1.60x | +park factor, −SP strikeout rate | no |
| Connor Wong | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.041 | 1.94x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 1.15 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.286 | 0.245 | 1.16x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.97x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.225 | 1.07x | +park factor, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.241 | 1.00x | −SP career HR rate, +park factor | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.255 | 0.94x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.207 | 1.12x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.263 | 0.88x | +season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.200 | 1.05x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.240 | 0.88x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.197 | 1.03x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.191 | 1.06x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 2.51 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | T1 · Slugger | 1.076 | 1.238 | 0.87x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Troy Melton | T1 · Slugger | 0.984 | 1.087 | 0.91x | lean suppression | 0 HR allowed | |
| Joe Ryan | T1 · Slugger | 0.904 | 1.063 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| MacKenzie Gore | T1 · Slugger | 0.891 | 1.102 | 0.81x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 1 home run against 4.49 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | T1 · Slugger | 1.079 | 0.915 | 1.18x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.