Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-04

2026-08-04

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
37picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES0 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.9 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

LAA @ BAL6:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike TroutLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.3% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Travis d'ArnaudLAAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.7% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.4% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.0% over normal 1.16x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.6% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park71°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Chase DeLauterCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.7% over normal 1.14x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity56%
Wind5 mph
Pressure998 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonah HeimATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jeff McNeilATHT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.5% over normal 1.76x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Brady Singer
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
STL @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity87%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.196 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.2% over normal 2.02x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Masyn WinnSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.6% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.0% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity81%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1020 mb
Air density1.197 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor WongBOST5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.9% over normal 1.94x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.2% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick Sandoval
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 1.24 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIA @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure980 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.8% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity73%
Wind5 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity48%
Wind8 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.127 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.1% over normal 1.15x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joe Ryan
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SF @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park88°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity39%
Wind5 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.129 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.2% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MacKenzie Gore
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.10 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
LAD @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity80%
Wind7 mph
Pressure994 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity86%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.3% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park63°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph
Pressure841 mb
Air density1.004 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jordan BeckCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.6% over normal 1.41x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +playing time
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity57%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.213 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer TorkelsonDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +1.8% over normal 1.11x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.0% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Troy Melton
lineup expected to homer 0.98 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
SD @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park91°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity33%
Wind4 mph
Pressure971 mb
Air density1.097 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.6% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −platoon edge
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data