Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-18

2026-09-18

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SF @ LAD10:15 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park61°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm65°83% rh3mph0% rain
11pm64°86% rh4mph0% rain
12am65°78% rh0mph0% rain
1am64°80% rh2mph0% rain
2am63°78% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Max MuncyLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +4.0% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.0% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.6% over normal 1.83x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Cesar Perdomo
lineup expected to homer 1.36 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
3 HR allowed
KC @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.7% carry
CF1 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity80%
Wind1 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm75°68% rh4mph0% rain
7pm72°76% rh4mph0% rain
8pm69°78% rh4mph0% rain
9pm67°79% rh3mph0% rain
10pm66°80% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon LowePITT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CHC @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity79%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm82°68% rh9mph4% rain
7pm80°70% rh9mph4% rain
8pm77°72% rh6mph2% rain
9pm75°77% rh5mph1% rain
10pm73°79% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael ConfortoCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park71°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity56%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.197 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm80°43% rh6mph0% rain
8pm76°49% rh7mph0% rain
9pm74°54% rh7mph0% rain
10pm73°55% rh7mph0% rain
11pm71°56% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.7% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.9% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ TB7:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity77%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance9%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm78°80% rh11mph16% rain
8pm78°82% rh7mph21% rain
9pm77°84% rh4mph22% rain
10pm77°83% rh4mph18% rain
11pm77°77% rh4mph9% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.0% over normal 1.72x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.55x · SLEEPERS
−SP strikeout rate, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ranger Suarez
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.07 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATH @ CLE7:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park63°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm70°56% rh7mph0% rain
8pm67°60% rh3mph0% rain
9pm65°62% rh3mph0% rain
10pm64°63% rh4mph1% rain
11pm63°64% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.1% over normal 1.62x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Angel GenaoCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.2% over normal 1.47x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
PHI @ NYM7:15 PMCiti Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity54%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.203 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm76°48% rh5mph0% rain
8pm73°57% rh5mph0% rain
9pm72°61% rh5mph0% rain
10pm71°54% rh9mph0% rain
11pm69°54% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.1% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park66°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity80%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm66°83% rh2mph4% rain
8pm65°85% rh3mph4% rain
9pm65°86% rh6mph3% rain
10pm66°82% rh7mph3% rain
11pm66°80% rh8mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.8% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.2% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TeelCWST3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity49%
Wind8 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm91°38% rh5mph0% rain
9pm89°42% rh4mph0% rain
10pm88°42% rh7mph0% rain
11pm86°42% rh7mph0% rain
12am86°44% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park76°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity72%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm80°71% rh7mph0% rain
9pm78°73% rh7mph0% rain
10pm78°74% rh6mph0% rain
11pm77°73% rh5mph0% rain
12am78°79% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.7% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.4% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.4% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ COL8:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park60°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity89%
Wind5 mph
Pressure843 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.009 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm63°76% rh9mph21% rain
9pm63°81% rh4mph14% rain
10pm62°81% rh7mph3% rain
11pm62°86% rh2mph1% rain
12am61°76% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.6% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.40x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ STL8:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.147 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm89°44% rh4mph6% rain
9pm86°48% rh4mph12% rain
10pm85°52% rh4mph7% rain
11pm83°55% rh4mph4% rain
12am79°79% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

JJ WetherholtSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +0.5% over normal 1.04x · ATS
−park factor, −SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Cade Cavalli
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Kyle Leahy
lineup expected to homer 0.78 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIN @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park64°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -2.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity91%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.201 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm69°71% rh2mph0% rain
10pm68°77% rh3mph0% rain
11pm66°85% rh3mph0% rain
12am68°78% rh2mph0% rain
1am67°81% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity80%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.195 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm70°76% rh5mph0% rain
10pm70°76% rh3mph0% rain
11pm70°79% rh3mph0% rain
12am70°76% rh1mph0% rain
1am70°73% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick Pivetta
lineup expected to homer 0.89 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
NYY @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park81°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity28%
Wind4 mph
Pressure971 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.122 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm88°27% rh3mph0% rain
10pm86°29% rh0mph0% rain
11pm84°29% rh2mph0% rain
12am87°28% rh3mph0% rain
1am85°28% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.55x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-3.5% over normal 0.85x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data