Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-26

2026-09-26

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

13games
31picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
NYM @ WSH12:35 PMNationals Parkneutral park61°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.6% carry
CF14 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity79%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance66%
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm64°62% rh12mph22% rain
1pm66°59% rh12mph27% rain
2pm65°61% rh12mph31% rain
3pm66°59% rh16mph29% rain
4pm61°79% rh14mph66% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Francisco AlvarezNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Brett BatyNYMT4 · The Field
we say 13% +5.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
−recent fly-ball rate, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
PIT @ DET1:10 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity29%
Wind8 mph
Pressure999 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm69°48% rh5mph0% rain
2pm71°41% rh6mph0% rain
3pm72°36% rh7mph0% rain
4pm72°27% rh8mph0% rain
5pm72°29% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
CIN @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park65°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.8% carry
CF3 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity66%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

3pm70°54% rh5mph0% rain
4pm70°56% rh6mph0% rain
5pm68°61% rh5mph0% rain
6pm67°59% rh3mph0% rain
7pm65°66% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.9% over normal 1.27x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.7% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Trey Yesavage
lineup expected to homer 1.02 times vs 1.20 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
no grade — game not played
LAD @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park59°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF13 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity78%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.217 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm66°65% rh11mph0% rain
5pm64°68% rh12mph0% rain
6pm63°70% rh13mph1% rain
7pm60°76% rh14mph0% rain
8pm59°78% rh13mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT4 · The Field
we say 13% +1.7% over normal 1.15x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Blake Snell
lineup expected to homer 0.47 times vs 0.62 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
no grade — game not played
TEX @ MIN4:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park59°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure987 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.186 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm61°82% rh8mph53% rain
5pm60°83% rh8mph38% rain
6pm59°84% rh7mph23% rain
7pm59°84% rh6mph12% rain
8pm59°86% rh4mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.1% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.5% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.2% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Bailey Ober
lineup expected to homer 1.14 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
no grade — game not played
ATL @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity74%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance14%
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm83°59% rh4mph4% rain
5pm78°63% rh8mph6% rain
6pm80°69% rh5mph5% rain
7pm78°75% rh4mph10% rain
8pm77°74% rh5mph14% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
STL @ MIL7:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park50°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp50°F
Humidity80%
Wind5 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.221 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm57°69% rh4mph0% rain
8pm55°74% rh5mph0% rain
9pm53°76% rh2mph0% rain
10pm52°77% rh3mph0% rain
11pm50°80% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 17% +5.8% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Luis LaraMILT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.0% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
CLE @ KC7:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park69°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity87%
Wind6 mph
Pressure984 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.157 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°81% rh1mph16% rain
8pm71°82% rh1mph18% rain
9pm70°82% rh5mph9% rain
10pm70°88% rh5mph5% rain
11pm69°87% rh6mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Michael Wacha
lineup expected to homer 0.86 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
no grade — game not played
COL @ CWS7:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity75%
Wind8 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.204 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm58°65% rh8mph0% rain
8pm58°68% rh8mph0% rain
9pm58°74% rh7mph0% rain
10pm58°72% rh7mph0% rain
11pm58°75% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.9% over normal 1.39x · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.5% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
TB @ PHI7:15 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park58°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.6% carry
CF11 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity82%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Rain chance9%
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm58°85% rh12mph26% rain
8pm58°92% rh13mph17% rain
9pm58°89% rh13mph14% rain
10pm58°86% rh11mph8% rain
11pm58°82% rh11mph9% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.9% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.0% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
AZ @ SD8:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park68°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF1 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity92%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm72°84% rh4mph0% rain
9pm71°86% rh3mph1% rain
10pm70°90% rh2mph2% rain
11pm70°91% rh3mph1% rain
12am68°92% rh1mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.9% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.4% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
LAA @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park48°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.7% carry
CF6 mph
Temp48°F
Humidity80%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.254 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm50°79% rh5mph0% rain
10pm49°75% rh5mph0% rain
11pm48°79% rh5mph0% rain
12am48°80% rh5mph0% rain
1am48°80% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mike TroutLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.3% over normal 1.22x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Moisés BallesterosLAAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Josh NaylorSEAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+pull tendency, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Kade Anderson
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 0.80 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
no grade — game not played
HOU @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park59°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp59°F
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.217 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm65°53% rh5mph0% rain
10pm63°57% rh4mph0% rain
11pm62°60% rh4mph0% rain
12am60°62% rh3mph0% rain
1am59°63% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.8% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no grade — game not played
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data