Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-02

2026-08-02

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-01 all nights 2026-08-03 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Willson Contreras	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.207	1.17x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.175	1.20x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.140	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.140	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.130	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.50x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.109	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Mitch Garver	SEA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Alec Burleson	STL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.129	1.24x	+recent hard-hit rate, +lineup slot	no
Jasson Domínguez	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.104	1.35x	+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Austin Riley	ATL	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.39x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.092	1.34x	+career barrel rate, −recent fly-ball rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.067	1.84x	+SP career HR rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Kyle Karros	COL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.076	1.63x	+park factor, +lineup slot	not yet graded
Max Schuemann	NYY	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.067	1.75x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.05x	+career barrel rate, +platoon edge	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.062	1.61x	−platoon edge, +season barrel rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.050	1.77x	+park factor, −platoon edge	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.16 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.140	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.140	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.122	1.50x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.125	1.46x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.109	1.49x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Mitch Garver	SEA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.104	1.53x	+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Cam Smith	HOU	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.105	1.28x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.100	1.23x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Max Schuemann	NYY	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.067	1.75x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.051	2.05x	+career barrel rate, +platoon edge	no
Joey Ortiz	MIL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.062	1.30x	−career barrel rate, +recent HR count	not yet graded
Braden Montgomery	CWS	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.086	0.93x	−recent fly-ball rate, −career barrel rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 1 home run against 0.81 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Ben Rice	NYY	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.240	1.06x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Willson Contreras	BOS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.197	1.22x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.251	0.96x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.244	0.99x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.207	1.17x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.232	1.04x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.265	0.91x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.237	0.253	0.94x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Riley Greene	DET	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.149	1.52x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Cal Raleigh	SEA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.192	1.10x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.140	1.50x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Spencer Jones	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.169	1.25x	+season hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 2.66 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Gavin Williams	T1 · Slugger	0.947	1.066	0.89x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Jacob Misiorowski	T1 · Slugger	0.934	1.054	0.89x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Landen Roupp	T1 · Slugger	0.864	0.987	0.88x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 3.11 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Emmet Sheehan		T1 · Slugger	1.222	1.025	1.19x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	4 HR allowed
Colin Rea		T1 · Slugger	0.872	0.710	1.23x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.73 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data