Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-03

2026-09-03

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

9games
29picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE1 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.7.
FAVORITES3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS1 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity93%
Wind4 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm64°88% rh1mph0% rain
11pm63°90% rh4mph0% rain
12am64°92% rh1mph0% rain
1am64°93% rh1mph0% rain
2am65°90% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.3% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +7.2% over normal 1.83x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Miguel RojasLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.2% over normal 2.04x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Hunter FeducciaLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.1% over normal 2.02x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Quinn Mathews
lineup expected to homer 1.45 times vs 1.12 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
SF @ PIT12:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park91°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp91°F
Humidity54%
Wind9 mph
Pressure987 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.114 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm78°85% rh8mph24% rain
1pm82°79% rh8mph4% rain
2pm86°69% rh7mph1% rain
3pm88°58% rh10mph1% rain
4pm91°54% rh9mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.9% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.9% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Turner HillSFT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.9% over normal 1.50x · ATS
+lineup slot, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 11 games
no
Rafael DeversSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brandon LowePITT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lake Bachar
lineup expected to homer 1.33 times vs 1.43 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
TOR @ CLE1:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity71%
Wind6 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance19%
Air density1.128 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm90°65% rh7mph4% rain
2pm88°66% rh7mph3% rain
3pm85°72% rh13mph9% rain
4pm88°63% rh7mph10% rain
5pm84°71% rh6mph19% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity79%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance16%
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Roof CLOSED — the forecast below does not reach the field.

2pm82°87% rh8mph27% rain
3pm83°78% rh6mph31% rain
4pm87°70% rh7mph43% rain
5pm80°83% rh9mph36% rain
6pm81°79% rh11mph16% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Daulton VarshoHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.8% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.2% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.2% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.9% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Brown
lineup expected to homer 1.15 times vs 1.25 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
MIL @ CHC7:15 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity95%
Wind3 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm75°88% rh9mph7% rain
8pm74°92% rh5mph2% rain
9pm74°94% rh3mph3% rain
10pm73°97% rh1mph4% rain
11pm73°95% rh3mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.7% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-1.6% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
−SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Logan Henderson
lineup expected to homer 1.15 times vs 1.26 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
1 HR allowed
BOS @ BAL7:15 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity78%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance21%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm86°59% rh2mph2% rain
8pm83°64% rh2mph3% rain
9pm80°70% rh3mph12% rain
10pm78°81% rh1mph15% rain
11pm78°78% rh4mph21% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.5% over normal 2.13x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-2.4% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity42%
Wind5 mph
Pressure980 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.118 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm97°31% rh9mph0% rain
8pm92°34% rh9mph0% rain
9pm90°37% rh8mph0% rain
10pm88°41% rh7mph0% rain
11pm86°42% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park80°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF9 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity74%
Wind9 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.141 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm85°60% rh10mph5% rain
9pm84°62% rh9mph5% rain
10pm82°69% rh10mph4% rain
11pm80°72% rh10mph3% rain
12am81°70% rh8mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.2% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Logan O'HoppeTEXT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.60x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +-3.7% over normal 0.84x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cal Quantrill
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
lean suppression
0 HR allowed
ATH @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park54°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp54°F
Humidity80%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.227 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm57°80% rh2mph10% rain
10pm57°75% rh2mph5% rain
11pm56°82% rh3mph4% rain
12am56°87% rh2mph8% rain
1am56°88% rh5mph11% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Henry BolteATHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.3% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data