Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-11

2026-09-11

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
35picks
Pete Alonsotop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE2 of 12 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SD @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.1% carry
CF13 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity81%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.219 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm59°81% rh12mph0% rain
11pm59°82% rh13mph0% rain
12am58°87% rh6mph0% rain
1am58°84% rh9mph0% rain
2am58°89% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.0% over normal 1.23x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.0% carry
CF10 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity63%
Wind10 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.156 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm76°56% rh11mph0% rain
3pm76°56% rh10mph0% rain
4pm76°55% rh9mph0% rain
5pm76°56% rh9mph0% rain
6pm74°63% rh9mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.5% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Nick GonzalesPITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.4% over normal 2.05x · SLEEPERS
+lineup slot, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity77%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm75°51% rh6mph0% rain
7pm72°61% rh6mph0% rain
8pm69°69% rh3mph0% rain
9pm66°73% rh6mph0% rain
10pm64°77% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ezequiel TovarCOLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.3% over normal 1.29x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Framber Valdez
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
LAA @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park73°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF3 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity81%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm81°61% rh2mph3% rain
7pm79°65% rh4mph1% rain
8pm76°73% rh4mph1% rain
9pm74°80% rh4mph1% rain
10pm73°81% rh3mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity59%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.205 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm76°38% rh5mph0% rain
8pm72°44% rh5mph0% rain
9pm70°49% rh4mph0% rain
10pm68°55% rh4mph0% rain
11pm67°59% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.4% over normal 1.23x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Marcus SemienNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin WellsNYYT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.3% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Aaron JudgeNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.8% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Francisco LindorNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park60°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity80%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.208 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm67°59% rh4mph0% rain
8pm63°76% rh3mph0% rain
9pm61°84% rh4mph0% rain
10pm60°84% rh4mph0% rain
11pm60°80% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jackson HollidayBALT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.38x · ATS
+season barrel rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.9% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.9% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
HOU @ TB7:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity87%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm84°82% rh4mph15% rain
8pm83°85% rh3mph15% rain
9pm80°88% rh9mph11% rain
10pm78°88% rh7mph9% rain
11pm78°87% rh4mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge MateoTBT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.2% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+SP career HR rate, −platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ MIA7:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity92%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm80°92% rh4mph35% rain
8pm77°87% rh3mph18% rain
9pm76°89% rh2mph11% rain
10pm76°91% rh5mph7% rain
11pm76°92% rh3mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +5.3% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter FeducciaLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.2% over normal 2.04x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +season HR pace
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
KC @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity50%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.219 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm72°31% rh5mph0% rain
8pm68°35% rh5mph0% rain
9pm66°39% rh5mph0% rain
10pm64°45% rh4mph0% rain
11pm62°50% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.8% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 18% +8.4% over normal 1.92x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor StoryBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.8% over normal 1.63x · SLEEPERS
+pull tendency, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Seth Lugo
lineup expected to homer 1.15 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
PHI @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity92%
Wind6 mph
Pressure979 mb
Rain chance13%
Air density1.140 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm75°92% rh11mph26% rain
8pm72°91% rh7mph29% rain
9pm72°93% rh4mph22% rain
10pm72°93% rh5mph17% rain
11pm73°92% rh6mph13% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 15% +5.2% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.9% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.7% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +2.2% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chris Sale
lineup expected to homer 1.04 times vs 1.20 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ MIL7:45 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park65°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity81%
Wind5 mph
Pressure988 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm70°67% rh7mph0% rain
8pm67°72% rh4mph0% rain
9pm66°78% rh5mph0% rain
10pm66°79% rh5mph0% rain
11pm65°81% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CLE @ MIN8:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park72°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.1% carry
CF12 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity66%
Wind12 mph
Pressure973 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.141 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm76°49% rh13mph3% rain
9pm74°51% rh13mph5% rain
10pm72°60% rh11mph9% rain
11pm72°65% rh12mph21% rain
12am73°65% rh3mph36% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.94 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CWS @ STL8:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity90%
Wind3 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm76°80% rh3mph1% rain
9pm75°83% rh4mph1% rain
10pm74°86% rh2mph1% rain
11pm73°90% rh4mph1% rain
12am72°92% rh2mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Thomas SaggeseSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.7% over normal 1.20x · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.1% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
SEA @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park65°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.6% carry
CF8 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity60%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.199 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°51% rh8mph0% rain
10pm69°54% rh7mph0% rain
11pm67°58% rh7mph0% rain
12am64°78% rh4mph0% rain
1am64°72% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.0% over normal 1.16x · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
George Kirby
lineup expected to homer 0.91 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
TEX @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity40%
Wind4 mph
Pressure971 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.098 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm95°35% rh3mph7% rain
10pm93°37% rh4mph2% rain
11pm92°38% rh2mph7% rain
12am95°23% rh3mph15% rain
1am92°31% rh11mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.AZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−platoon edge, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data