Sparrow Data
2026-08-14
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-08-13 all nights 2026-08-15 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone | KC | T2 · Power Bat | 0.191 | 0.144 | 1.33x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | HOME RUN |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.151 | 1.21x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Heriberto Hernández | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.123 | 1.48x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.137 | 1.33x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.119 | 1.48x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.113 | 1.43x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| José Ramírez | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.109 | 1.46x | +career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency | not yet graded |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.32x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.112 | 1.43x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Brady House | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.114 | 1.40x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Daylen Lile | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.126 | 1.27x | +SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.110 | 1.38x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.37 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Tena | WSH | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.080 | 1.55x | +SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate | no |
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.079 | 1.57x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.056 | 2.16x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Isaac Collins | KC | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.065 | 1.82x | +park factor, −lineup slot | no |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | AZ | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.061 | 1.91x | +season barrel rate, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Lars Nootbaar | AZ | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.041 | 2.24x | +SP career HR rate, +park factor | not yet graded |
| Xavier Edwards | MIA | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.055 | 1.61x | +park factor, −season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 1 home run against 0.40 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.137 | 1.33x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Mike Yastrzemski | ATL | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.119 | 1.48x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Tyler O'Neill | BAL | T3 · Solid | 0.163 | 0.113 | 1.43x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Ryan McMahon | NYY | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.121 | 1.32x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.146 | 1.09x | +career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Brady House | WSH | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.114 | 1.40x | +SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.111 | 1.27x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.122 | 1.15x | +recent hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.108 | 1.25x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Alex Bregman | CHC | T4 · The Field | 0.124 | 0.100 | 1.24x | +recent fly-ball rate, +pull tendency | no |
| Tommy Edman | LAD | T4 · The Field | 0.123 | 0.079 | 1.57x | +park factor, +pull tendency | HOME RUN |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA | T4 · The Field | 0.121 | 0.056 | 2.16x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Isaac Collins | KC | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.065 | 1.82x | +park factor, −lineup slot | no |
| Braden Montgomery | CWS | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.089 | 0.99x | −park factor, −career barrel rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.48 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.240 | 1.00x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Matt Olson | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.243 | 0.99x | +park factor, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.232 | 1.04x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.229 | 1.05x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.262 | 0.92x | −park factor, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.200 | 1.13x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Junior Caminero | TB | T2 · Power Bat | 0.226 | 0.245 | 0.92x | +SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.225 | 0.203 | 1.11x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | not yet graded |
| Corey Seager | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.194 | 1.09x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Griffin Conine | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.184 | 1.14x | +park factor, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.03 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Jobe | T1 · Slugger | 1.069 | 1.289 | 0.83x | strong suppression spot | 3 HR allowed | |
| Landen Roupp | T1 · Slugger | 0.902 | 1.208 | 0.75x | elite suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Sean Newcomb | T1 · Slugger | 0.854 | 1.089 | 0.78x | elite suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Gerrit Cole | T1 · Slugger | 0.802 | 0.944 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 5 home runs against 4.53 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | T1 · Slugger | 1.215 | 0.961 | 1.26x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 0 HR allowed | |
| Grayson Rodriguez | T1 · Slugger | 1.111 | 0.991 | 1.12x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 2 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.95 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.