Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-14

2026-08-14

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

14games
35picks
Ben Ricetop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS1 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE2 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES2 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 4 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

MIL @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park67°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity87%
Wind2 mph
Pressure997 mb
Air density1.180 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.2% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tommy EdmanLADT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.5% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.7% carry
CF10 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity100%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.224 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.21 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
STL @ CHC2:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity86%
Wind6 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.161 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Alex BregmanCHCT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.4% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+recent fly-ball rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ CIN6:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.9% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.5% over normal 2.16x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Xavier EdwardsMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.4% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.6% over normal 1.14x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Chase Burns
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
BOS @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park71°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF3 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity85%
Wind3 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.4% over normal 1.09x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CWS @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park74°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.1% carry
CF6 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity71%
Wind6 mph
Pressure999 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Braden MontgomeryCWST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +-0.1% over normal 0.99x · ATS
−park factor, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.1% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jackson Jobe
lineup expected to homer 1.07 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
Sean Newcomb
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
BAL @ TB7:10 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.6% over normal 1.13x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.9% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity79%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.5% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Daylen LileWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.4% over normal 1.55x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
SD @ CLE7:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity83%
Wind4 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.0% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Chase DeLauterCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.8% over normal 1.15x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ TOR7:15 PMRogers Centreneutral park69°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF9 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity81%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.191 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Gerrit Cole
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
AZ @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.1% carry
CF3 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity63%
Wind3 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.125 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael Harris IIATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.1% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.8% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.6% over normal 1.91x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +5.1% over normal 2.24x · SLEEPERS
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity87%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Taylor TrammellHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.3% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
KC @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.7% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Isaac CollinsKCT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.3% over normal 1.82x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Grayson Rodriguez
lineup expected to homer 1.11 times vs 0.99 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
TEX @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park60°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -1.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity86%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT4 · The Field
we say 13% +2.7% over normal 1.25x · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.2% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.7% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data