Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-05

2026-09-05

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Cal Raleightop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 8 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE5 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS5 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is not what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SF @ NYM4:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity60%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm79°46% rh7mph1% rain
5pm79°48% rh9mph1% rain
6pm78°50% rh7mph1% rain
7pm75°52% rh6mph1% rain
8pm72°60% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Turner HillSFT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.1% over normal 1.43x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 13 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.1% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF3 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity92%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance29%
Air density1.166 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm86°75% rh6mph30% rain
5pm86°73% rh7mph26% rain
6pm84°76% rh7mph26% rain
7pm79°92% rh8mph29% rain
8pm79°92% rh3mph29% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +8.1% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Michael ConfortoCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ATS
+season hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
ATL @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF3 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity77%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm80°44% rh9mph0% rain
7pm77°49% rh5mph0% rain
8pm74°61% rh4mph0% rain
9pm72°71% rh4mph0% rain
10pm70°77% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.6% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
DET @ CLE6:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park66°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.1% carry
CF1 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity72%
Wind1 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm74°63% rh12mph0% rain
7pm72°61% rh10mph0% rain
8pm69°68% rh5mph0% rain
9pm67°72% rh3mph0% rain
10pm66°72% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +1.4% over normal 1.13x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.02 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
LAA @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure986 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm78°71% rh4mph6% rain
7pm76°78% rh4mph4% rain
8pm73°80% rh5mph3% rain
9pm70°81% rh6mph1% rain
10pm68°86% rh3mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.9% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.6% over normal 1.37x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Braxton Ashcraft
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIL @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance18%
Air density1.148 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm85°64% rh5mph5% rain
7pm85°69% rh3mph7% rain
8pm83°68% rh4mph8% rain
9pm80°65% rh5mph7% rain
10pm78°71% rh5mph18% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

William ContrerasMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Luis LaraMILT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.2% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +4.4% over normal 1.24x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Dustin May
lineup expected to homer 1.16 times vs 1.37 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
TB @ TEX7:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF9 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity54%
Wind9 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm97°34% rh8mph1% rain
8pm94°41% rh8mph1% rain
9pm92°44% rh8mph1% rain
10pm90°48% rh8mph1% rain
11pm87°54% rh9mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.5% over normal 1.04x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BOS @ BAL7:05 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park70°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity68%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.189 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm80°48% rh7mph0% rain
8pm76°54% rh6mph0% rain
9pm74°58% rh7mph0% rain
10pm72°63% rh5mph0% rain
11pm70°68% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST4 · The Field
we say 13% +5.3% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.64x · SLEEPERS
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ KC7:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park88°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity42%
Wind7 mph
Pressure982 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.117 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm97°33% rh7mph0% rain
8pm93°37% rh6mph0% rain
9pm90°42% rh6mph0% rain
10pm89°42% rh7mph1% rain
11pm88°42% rh7mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Seth Lugo
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.95 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIN @ CWS7:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.2% carry
CF16 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity84%
Wind16 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm72°88% rh13mph0% rain
8pm72°88% rh12mph0% rain
9pm72°84% rh14mph0% rain
10pm72°84% rh14mph0% rain
11pm72°84% rh15mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.3% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
NYY @ SD7:15 PMPetco Parkneutral park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity72%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm78°54% rh6mph2% rain
8pm76°62% rh5mph3% rain
9pm74°67% rh5mph2% rain
10pm73°71% rh5mph2% rain
11pm73°72% rh4mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.9% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ HOU7:15 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.0% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity84%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm83°71% rh7mph24% rain
8pm81°76% rh6mph21% rain
9pm81°80% rh5mph16% rain
10pm80°83% rh5mph13% rain
11pm80°84% rh4mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tim TawaAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Corbin CarrollAZT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Daulton VarshoHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.8% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +8.6% over normal 2.59x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.8% over normal 1.74x · SLEEPERS
−career hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-0.3% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ethan Pecko
lineup expected to homer 1.31 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
STL @ COL8:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park76°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.8% carry
CF10 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity38%
Wind10 mph
Pressure841 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density0.982 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm82°22% rh5mph3% rain
9pm82°21% rh6mph3% rain
10pm77°24% rh6mph8% rain
11pm77°32% rh8mph5% rain
12am74°33% rh8mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +8.2% over normal 1.82x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Alec BurlesonSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
WSH @ LAD9:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park68°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF1 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity79%
Wind1 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm71°68% rh3mph1% rain
10pm69°78% rh2mph1% rain
11pm68°83% rh1mph1% rain
12am74°52% rh2mph0% rain
1am72°48% rh1mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.2% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.0% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park54°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp54°F
Humidity76%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.235 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm58°83% rh4mph3% rain
10pm56°83% rh2mph2% rain
11pm55°82% rh2mph2% rain
12am58°64% rh5mph1% rain
1am57°70% rh3mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +4.8% over normal 1.25x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Julio RodríguezSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data