Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-26

2026-07-26

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-25 all nights 2026-07-27 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.203	1.18x	+season hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.117	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Francisco Lindor	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.149	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.42x	+recent barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.145	1.26x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.41x	+SP fly balls allowed, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Austin Riley	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.112	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+recent barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Royce Lewis	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Josh Bell	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.127	1.26x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.100	1.42x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.106	1.35x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.107	1.31x	+career barrel rate, +lineup slot	not yet graded
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.33x	+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Cam Smith	HOU	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.105	1.34x	+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.73 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.059	1.99x	+season barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	not yet graded
Logan O'Hoppe	LAA	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.063	1.65x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Joey Ortiz	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.061	1.71x	+park factor, −career barrel rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.53x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	no
Jake Cronenworth	SD	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.068	1.34x	−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.053	1.67x	−SP career barrels allowed, −SP career HR rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.054	1.50x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.117	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Francisco Lindor	NYM	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.149	1.29x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Christian Yelich	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.129	1.42x	+recent barrel rate, +park factor	not yet graded
Austin Riley	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.112	1.63x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.117	1.56x	+recent barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Royce Lewis	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.125	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.130	1.25x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.120	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.44x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
LaMonte Wade Jr.	HOU	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.116	1.16x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Heliot Ramos	SF	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.125	1.07x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Adrian Del Castillo	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.124	0.096	1.29x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Chase DeLauter	CLE	T4 · The Field	0.121	0.122	1.00x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.068	1.53x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	no
Max Schuemann	NYY	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.066	1.52x	−SP career HR rate, +park factor	no

Section that night: 1 home run against 1.56 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Byron Buxton	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.253	0.95x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.254	0.95x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.248	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	no
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.203	1.18x	+season hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.252	0.96x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.242	0.93x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.262	0.81x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.263	0.80x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.242	0.87x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Christian Walker	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.194	1.04x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Jake Bauers	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.182	1.12x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.14 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Leahy	T1 · Slugger	0.818	1.038	0.79x	elite suppression spot	2 HR allowed
Parker Messick	T1 · Slugger	0.774	0.969	0.80x	elite suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Ranger Suarez	T1 · Slugger	0.681	0.842	0.81x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.85 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Miles Mikolas		T1 · Slugger	1.483	1.333	1.11x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed
Emmet Sheehan		T1 · Slugger	1.086	0.972	1.12x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.31 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data