Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-26

2026-07-26

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
41picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES4 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CLE @ TB12:15 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park88°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity83%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Chase DeLauterCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +-0.0% over normal 1.00x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.77 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ WSH1:35 PMNationals Parkneutral park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.4% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity62%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.8% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.5% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+SP career HR rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.8% over normal 1.99x · SLEEPERS
+season barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Adrian Del CastilloAZT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.8% over normal 1.29x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Miles Mikolas
lineup expected to homer 1.48 times vs 1.33 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
CHC @ PIT1:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity68%
Wind2 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan O'HearnPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.3% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+SP fly balls allowed, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Bryan ReynoldsPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-5.3% over normal 0.80x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
TOR @ BOS1:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity54%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.178 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ranger Suarez
lineup expected to homer 0.68 times vs 0.84 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
ATL @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park82°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity65%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +7.1% over normal 1.63x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ NYM1:40 PMCiti Fieldneutral park83°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity44%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Francisco LindorNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.6% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Emmet Sheehan
lineup expected to homer 1.09 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
SD @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.6% carry
CF3 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity69%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +8.6% over normal 1.74x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake CronenworthSDT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
KC @ DET1:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park83°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity63%
Wind7 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.136 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.2% over normal 1.25x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park94°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +4.0% carry
CF8 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity56%
Wind8 mph
Pressure980 mb
Air density1.098 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Royce LewisMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.3% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity98%
Wind8 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Christian YelichMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.4% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Joey OrtizMILT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.3% over normal 1.71x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.6% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
−SP career barrels allowed, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +2.1% over normal 1.12x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ CWS2:10 PMRate Fieldneutral park83°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity83%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.5% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +1.8% over normal 1.16x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.7% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.1% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-5.1% over normal 0.81x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Christian WalkerHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +0.9% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
CIN @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park94°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.8% carry
CF2 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity74%
Wind2 mph
Pressure996 mb
Air density1.111 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.7% over normal 1.50x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Kyle Leahy
lineup expected to homer 0.82 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
2 HR allowed
SEA @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park95°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp95°F
Humidity47%
Wind5 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.113 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAA @ SF4:05 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park67°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.7% carry
CF14 mph
Temp67°F
Humidity79%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.202 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Logan O'HoppeLAAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.1% over normal 1.65x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heliot RamosSFT4 · The Field
we say 13% +0.9% over normal 1.07x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ PHI7:20 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity45%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.159 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Max SchuemannNYYT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.4% over normal 1.52x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-3.1% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data