Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-30

2026-08-30

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

14games
35picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
SLEEPERS0 of 6 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.4.
AROUND SLATE3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 3 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

MIA @ WSH12:15 PMNationals Parkneutral park87°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity57%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm81°77% rh7mph0% rain
1pm83°71% rh9mph0% rain
2pm84°68% rh8mph1% rain
3pm86°70% rh7mph2% rain
4pm87°57% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.6% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+lineup slot, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
BOS @ NYY1:35 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF10 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity64%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance5%
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm78°58% rh10mph7% rain
2pm79°70% rh9mph6% rain
3pm79°70% rh9mph10% rain
4pm81°63% rh11mph7% rain
5pm82°64% rh10mph5% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Roman AnthonyBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +7.1% over normal 2.52x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +1.9% over normal 1.13x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ ATL1:35 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park87°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF9 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity53%
Wind9 mph
Pressure983 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.117 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm86°63% rh6mph1% rain
2pm88°58% rh8mph8% rain
3pm86°65% rh6mph2% rain
4pm86°53% rh7mph2% rain
5pm87°53% rh9mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +8.1% over normal 1.80x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.2% over normal 1.77x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.3% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.2% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mason Adams
lineup expected to homer 1.63 times vs 1.38 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
SEA @ TOR1:37 PMRogers Centreneutral park69°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.8% carry
CF7 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity91%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.187 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm69°89% rh5mph7% rain
2pm68°95% rh6mph6% rain
3pm70°94% rh7mph12% rain
4pm70°93% rh8mph8% rain
5pm69°91% rh7mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cal RaleighSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +5.4% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Julio RodríguezSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.1% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.6% over normal 1.53x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Logan Gilbert
lineup expected to homer 0.69 times vs 0.80 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
Max Scherzer
lineup expected to homer 1.07 times vs 0.94 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
SD @ TB1:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF2 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity69%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance21%
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm86°81% rh4mph3% rain
2pm87°78% rh2mph6% rain
3pm88°73% rh3mph10% rain
4pm88°67% rh5mph11% rain
5pm87°69% rh2mph21% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +2.4% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-2.2% over normal 0.90x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
LAD @ DET1:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park73°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity87%
Wind8 mph
Pressure996 mb
Rain chance15%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm71°91% rh7mph45% rain
2pm72°87% rh9mph37% rain
3pm73°83% rh10mph24% rain
4pm72°85% rh9mph15% rain
5pm73°87% rh8mph15% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.1% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Tyler Glasnow
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
KC @ CLE1:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.6% carry
CF6 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity71%
Wind6 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance7%
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm75°77% rh7mph23% rain
2pm74°83% rh4mph29% rain
3pm75°79% rh4mph27% rain
4pm76°74% rh4mph20% rain
5pm78°71% rh6mph7% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 15% +4.9% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Angel GenaoCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.96 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CWS @ MIN2:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park88°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +2.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity54%
Wind9 mph
Pressure978 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.110 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm80°72% rh11mph3% rain
3pm84°67% rh10mph2% rain
4pm86°61% rh10mph1% rain
5pm87°56% rh9mph1% rain
6pm88°54% rh9mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake RogersCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +pull tendency
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TEX @ MIL2:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.2% carry
CF7 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity77%
Wind7 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance31%
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm84°67% rh17mph4% rain
3pm82°66% rh16mph20% rain
4pm81°71% rh18mph19% rain
5pm79°73% rh15mph23% rain
6pm77°77% rh7mph31% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park92°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp92°F
Humidity31%
Wind10 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm93°38% rh7mph0% rain
3pm95°32% rh6mph0% rain
4pm95°30% rh7mph0% rain
5pm94°31% rh10mph0% rain
6pm92°31% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Thomas SaggeseSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.1% over normal 1.57x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, −park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ NYM3:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity78%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm79°71% rh9mph7% rain
4pm80°67% rh9mph8% rain
5pm81°68% rh9mph7% rain
6pm80°72% rh8mph5% rain
7pm78°78% rh5mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.6% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.9% over normal 0.96x · FAVORITES
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ ATH4:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park73°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF8 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity40%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.181 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm89°26% rh6mph0% rain
5pm89°22% rh6mph0% rain
6pm86°29% rh8mph0% rain
7pm80°34% rh10mph0% rain
8pm73°40% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Samuel BasalloBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.1% over normal 1.17x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Carlos NarváezBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.9% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+season barrel rate, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan BeaversBALT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.2% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Blaze AlexanderBALT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.2% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS
+recent barrel rate, −pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.8% over normal 1.46x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.4% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jeffrey Springs
lineup expected to homer 1.05 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
PHI @ LAA4:07 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity77%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm86°49% rh9mph0% rain
5pm86°52% rh7mph0% rain
6pm82°64% rh8mph0% rain
7pm78°72% rh7mph1% rain
8pm75°77% rh6mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT4 · The Field
we say 13% +4.4% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.6% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Zack Wheeler
lineup expected to homer 0.78 times vs 0.91 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ CHC7:20 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park72°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity88%
Wind6 mph
Pressure992 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.160 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°85% rh10mph21% rain
8pm73°82% rh7mph15% rain
9pm72°85% rh7mph11% rain
10pm72°87% rh7mph6% rain
11pm72°88% rh6mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Elly De La CruzCINT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +2.8% over normal 1.18x · ATS
+SP HR rate, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.2% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data