Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-06

2026-09-06

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 27%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE4 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES3 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 5 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 5 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

WSH @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.8% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm72°87% rh2mph6% rain
11pm71°85% rh1mph6% rain
12am72°88% rh5mph3% rain
1am72°91% rh4mph2% rain
2am72°90% rh4mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Daylen LileWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.4% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jorbit VivasWSHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.1% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.0% over normal 1.09x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ CIN12:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF10 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity35%
Wind10 mph
Pressure998 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

12pm77°57% rh9mph0% rain
1pm80°45% rh10mph0% rain
2pm83°41% rh9mph0% rain
3pm85°35% rh10mph0% rain
4pm85°35% rh10mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bo NaylorMILT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.8% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Christian YelichMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.0% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Garrett MitchellMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.7% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.7% over normal 1.15x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
ATL @ PHI1:10 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity56%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm76°65% rh6mph1% rain
2pm77°61% rh5mph1% rain
3pm78°58% rh5mph0% rain
4pm78°56% rh5mph3% rain
5pm78°56% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Michael Harris IIATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.0% over normal 1.20x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +9.9% over normal 2.19x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.2% over normal 1.05x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.4% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +2.8% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Aaron Nola
lineup expected to homer 1.49 times vs 1.28 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
LAA @ PIT1:35 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity61%
Wind8 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm74°61% rh7mph0% rain
2pm75°60% rh8mph0% rain
3pm75°57% rh8mph0% rain
4pm75°58% rh8mph0% rain
5pm75°61% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT4 · The Field
we say 10% +0.1% over normal 1.01x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, −SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Walbert Ureña
lineup expected to homer 1.02 times vs 1.17 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Paul Skenes
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
BOS @ BAL1:35 PMOriole Park at Camden Yardshitter-friendly park79°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.7% carry
CF8 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity53%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm81°47% rh3mph0% rain
2pm82°44% rh3mph0% rain
3pm82°44% rh4mph0% rain
4pm83°42% rh3mph0% rain
5pm79°53% rh8mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.4% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.3% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, −SP strikeout rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SF @ NYM1:40 PMCiti Fieldneutral park74°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity58%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm72°70% rh10mph5% rain
2pm73°66% rh6mph1% rain
3pm73°62% rh5mph1% rain
4pm74°61% rh4mph3% rain
5pm74°58% rh4mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bo BichetteNYMT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.25x · ATS
−pull tendency, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.9% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ MIA1:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity90%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance19%
Air density1.167 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

1pm87°75% rh2mph19% rain
2pm87°77% rh3mph21% rain
3pm79°96% rh13mph33% rain
4pm78°89% rh9mph34% rain
5pm78°90% rh2mph19% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jakob MarseeMIAT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.9% over normal 1.39x · ATS
+park factor, −SP career barrels allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ CLE1:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.6% carry
CF12 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity53%
Wind12 mph
Pressure994 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.157 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm75°60% rh9mph0% rain
2pm76°56% rh10mph0% rain
3pm76°57% rh11mph0% rain
4pm76°53% rh13mph1% rain
5pm76°53% rh12mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colt KeithDETT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.8% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ KC2:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park95°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.5% carry
CF11 mph
Temp95°F
Humidity42%
Wind11 mph
Pressure982 mb
Rain chance10%
Air density1.101 kg/m³

Open-air park.

2pm96°40% rh6mph3% rain
3pm98°42% rh7mph7% rain
4pm97°40% rh8mph3% rain
5pm98°39% rh9mph8% rain
6pm95°42% rh11mph10% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vinnie PasquantinoKCT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.26x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Randy Dobnak
lineup expected to homer 0.74 times vs 0.90 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
AZ @ HOU2:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park86°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity75%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Rain chance19%
Air density1.146 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm90°62% rh2mph23% rain
3pm85°77% rh5mph24% rain
4pm87°73% rh4mph15% rain
5pm87°72% rh5mph16% rain
6pm86°75% rh4mph19% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corbin CarrollAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Daulton VarshoHOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.9% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +season fly-ball rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT3 · Solid
we say 16% +10.5% over normal 2.94x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +2.4% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Peter Lambert
lineup expected to homer 1.23 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TB @ TEX2:35 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park98°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.9% carry
CF9 mph
Temp98°F
Humidity35%
Wind9 mph
Pressure990 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.105 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

2pm98°39% rh9mph0% rain
3pm98°38% rh9mph0% rain
4pm99°35% rh10mph1% rain
5pm99°34% rh9mph1% rain
6pm98°35% rh9mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Logan O'HoppeTEXT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.8% over normal 1.56x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MacKenzie Gore
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
STL @ COL3:10 PMCoors Fieldneutral park89°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.4% carry
CF6 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity20%
Wind6 mph
Pressure841 mb
Rain chance9%
Air density0.957 kg/m³

Open-air park.

3pm92°22% rh6mph2% rain
4pm93°20% rh7mph5% rain
5pm93°19% rh7mph8% rain
6pm92°18% rh10mph8% rain
7pm89°20% rh6mph9% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +8.2% over normal 1.82x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle Leahy
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.06 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
ATH @ SEA4:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park62°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp62°F
Humidity49%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

4pm70°43% rh8mph0% rain
5pm70°41% rh8mph0% rain
6pm69°42% rh7mph1% rain
7pm65°51% rh4mph1% rain
8pm62°49% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Lawrence ButlerATHT3 · Solid
we say 15% +2.9% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYY @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park84°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF10 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity58%
Wind10 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm94°36% rh11mph3% rain
5pm94°36% rh11mph2% rain
6pm93°38% rh10mph3% rain
7pm90°42% rh8mph3% rain
8pm84°58% rh10mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
MIN @ CWS6:20 PMRate Fieldneutral park71°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity56%
Wind11 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm74°59% rh10mph0% rain
7pm72°61% rh9mph0% rain
8pm71°64% rh9mph0% rain
9pm71°64% rh10mph0% rain
10pm71°56% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tristan PetersCWST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +season fly-ball rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 27% +2.5% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data