Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-25

2026-09-25

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Munetaka Murakamitop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS1 of 7 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.5.
AROUND SLATE3 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 10 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN1 home runs allowed across 1 start. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

LAA @ SEA10:10 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park48°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -2.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp48°F
Humidity91%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1021 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.253 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

10pm50°74% rh4mph0% rain
11pm49°85% rh6mph0% rain
12am50°82% rh5mph0% rain
1am49°86% rh5mph0% rain
2am49°88% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh NaylorSEAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.5% over normal 1.41x · ATS
+pull tendency, −platoon edge
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ SF10:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.9% carry
CF8 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity80%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.226 kg/m³

Open-air park.

10pm59°65% rh8mph0% rain
11pm58°71% rh8mph0% rain
12am56°87% rh6mph0% rain
1am54°87% rh5mph0% rain
2am53°85% rh2mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.4% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.5% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tarik Skubal
lineup expected to homer 0.52 times vs 0.65 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
BAL @ NYY4:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.6% carry
CF16 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity40%
Wind16 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Rain chance6%
Air density1.205 kg/m³

Open-air park.

4pm72°35% rh17mph1% rain
5pm71°39% rh17mph2% rain
6pm70°41% rh16mph3% rain
7pm67°42% rh16mph4% rain
8pm66°40% rh16mph6% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Colton CowserBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Dylan BeaversBALT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.4% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.52x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.8% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
CHC @ BOS5:35 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park60°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -5.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity68%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Rain chance21%
Air density1.224 kg/m³

Open-air park.

5pm64°50% rh15mph2% rain
6pm62°54% rh12mph7% rain
7pm61°62% rh12mph17% rain
8pm60°60% rh13mph26% rain
9pm60°68% rh11mph21% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.9% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Connor WongBOST4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.9% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
TB @ PHI6:40 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park65°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -6.4% carry
CF16 mph
Temp65°F
Humidity49%
Wind16 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.205 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm71°37% rh13mph0% rain
7pm68°41% rh12mph1% rain
8pm68°44% rh14mph1% rain
9pm66°49% rh14mph1% rain
10pm65°49% rh16mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.3% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cristopher Sánchez
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.97 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
PIT @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park56°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -2.5% carry
CF5 mph
Temp56°F
Humidity68%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.214 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm67°43% rh7mph1% rain
7pm64°42% rh4mph1% rain
8pm60°50% rh5mph0% rain
9pm58°56% rh6mph0% rain
10pm56°68% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.8% over normal 1.54x · SLEEPERS
−platoon edge, +lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park63°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.9% carry
CF11 mph
Temp63°F
Humidity56%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.212 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm71°36% rh13mph0% rain
7pm67°44% rh8mph0% rain
8pm64°51% rh8mph0% rain
9pm64°52% rh10mph0% rain
10pm63°56% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.6% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park58°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.5% carry
CF11 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity74%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.222 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm62°60% rh4mph0% rain
8pm60°62% rh5mph0% rain
9pm59°50% rh6mph0% rain
10pm58°64% rh10mph0% rain
11pm58°74% rh11mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.4% over normal 1.77x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.1% over normal 1.16x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
José Soriano
lineup expected to homer 1.04 times vs 1.31 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
ATL @ MIA7:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park76°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity91%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1014 mb
Rain chance3%
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm79°80% rh7mph16% rain
8pm78°87% rh4mph15% rain
9pm77°88% rh6mph13% rain
10pm77°90% rh4mph6% rain
11pm76°91% rh4mph3% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Griffin ConineMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.8% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Mike YastrzemskiATLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.6% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.7% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
STL @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park54°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.4% carry
CF2 mph
Temp54°F
Humidity73%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.216 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

7pm59°66% rh4mph0% rain
8pm58°68% rh4mph0% rain
9pm56°69% rh3mph0% rain
10pm55°70% rh1mph0% rain
11pm54°73% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +3.5% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park64°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.2% carry
CF9 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity84%
Wind9 mph
Pressure987 mb
Rain chance4%
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm66°84% rh4mph14% rain
8pm66°84% rh4mph4% rain
9pm65°84% rh6mph3% rain
10pm64°86% rh7mph3% rain
11pm64°84% rh9mph4% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.1% over normal 1.33x · ATS
−park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
COL @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park58°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -4.3% carry
CF6 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity81%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1002 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.208 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm58°74% rh7mph0% rain
8pm58°78% rh6mph0% rain
9pm58°78% rh7mph0% rain
10pm58°80% rh7mph0% rain
11pm58°81% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.4% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kyle TeelCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career barrels allowed
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew BenintendiCWST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.9% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
−career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Connor NorbyCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +4.3% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +2.3% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP career barrels allowed
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Tomoyuki Sugano
lineup expected to homer 1.55 times vs 1.32 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TEX @ MIN8:10 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park60°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -3.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure991 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.190 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm64°74% rh4mph0% rain
9pm63°78% rh4mph0% rain
10pm61°84% rh5mph0% rain
11pm60°90% rh4mph0% rain
12am60°83% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh JungTEXT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.2% over normal 1.58x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park68°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity95%
Wind3 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.192 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm70°92% rh5mph0% rain
10pm69°93% rh3mph0% rain
11pm69°92% rh1mph0% rain
12am68°92% rh1mph0% rain
1am68°95% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.8% over normal 1.26x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Tim TawaAZT3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.9% over normal 1.39x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +3.7% over normal 1.55x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
HOU @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park58°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -2.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity61%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.219 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm67°46% rh5mph0% rain
10pm64°51% rh5mph0% rain
11pm62°53% rh4mph0% rain
12am59°72% rh5mph0% rain
1am58°76% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Cam SmithHOUT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.0% over normal 1.16x · ATS
−SP exit velo allowed, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter Brown
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data