Sparrow Data
2026-07-20
The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.
Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.
← 2026-07-19 all nights 2026-07-21 →
ELEVATED
Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.154 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.150 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.203 | 0.134 | 1.51x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.116 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.092 | 2.04x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Heriberto Hernández | MIA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.126 | 1.48x | +career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate | no |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.146 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Marcell Ozuna | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.138 | 1.32x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Ryan O'Hearn | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.138 | 1.32x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.117 | 1.56x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Mitch Garver | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.119 | 1.48x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Henry Davis | PIT | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.118 | 1.35x | +park factor, +pull tendency | no |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | T3 · Solid | 0.153 | 0.100 | 1.52x | +career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Kevin McGonigle | DET | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.099 | 1.44x | +SP fly balls allowed, +lineup slot | no |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.097 | 1.47x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Trevor Larnach | MIN | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.100 | 1.42x | +park factor, +lineup slot | no |
| Daniel Schneemann | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.093 | 1.54x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.92 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
SLEEPERS
Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.051 | 2.31x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Patrick Bailey | CLE | T4 · The Field | 0.105 | 0.079 | 1.32x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | T5 · Longshot | 0.092 | 0.068 | 1.34x | +park factor, +season barrel rate | no |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | T5 · Longshot | 0.089 | 0.068 | 1.30x | +park factor, −recent hard-hit rate | no |
| Jared Triolo | PIT | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.059 | 1.36x | +park factor, −recent fly-ball rate | not yet graded |
| Hunter Feduccia | TB | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.059 | 1.36x | −SP career HR rate, −pull tendency | not yet graded |
| Joey Ortiz | MIL | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.053 | 1.51x | +park factor, −lineup slot | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 0.32 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
AROUND SLATE
One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.154 | 1.37x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Riley Greene | DET | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.150 | 1.40x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Ketel Marte | AZ | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.162 | 1.16x | +career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Austin Riley | ATL | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.116 | 1.61x | +career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Andrés Chaparro | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.092 | 2.04x | +career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | T2 · Power Bat | 0.188 | 0.146 | 1.28x | +career barrel rate, −park factor | no |
| Jorge Soler | LAA | T2 · Power Bat | 0.183 | 0.147 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Mitch Garver | SEA | T3 · Solid | 0.176 | 0.119 | 1.48x | +career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate | not yet graded |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS | T3 · Solid | 0.160 | 0.129 | 1.24x | +recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Daniel Schneemann | CLE | T3 · Solid | 0.143 | 0.093 | 1.54x | +career barrel rate, +park factor | no |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.114 | 1.24x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | no |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | T3 · Solid | 0.140 | 0.103 | 1.36x | +park factor, −career hard-hit rate | no |
| Taylor Trammell | HOU | T4 · The Field | 0.134 | 0.097 | 1.38x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Nick Gonzales | PIT | T4 · The Field | 0.117 | 0.051 | 2.31x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | no |
| Joey Ortiz | MIL | T5 · Longshot | 0.080 | 0.053 | 1.51x | +park factor, −lineup slot | HOME RUN |
Section that night: 5 home runs against 1.61 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
FAVORITES
Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.
| Batter | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | T1 · Slugger | 0.291 | 0.271 | 1.07x | +park factor, +season hard-hit rate | no |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.270 | 0.94x | +park factor, +SP career HR rate | HOME RUN |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | T1 · Slugger | 0.255 | 0.268 | 0.95x | +recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate | no |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.266 | 0.91x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.242 | 1.00x | +career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate | HOME RUN |
| Colson Montgomery | CWS | T2 · Power Bat | 0.241 | 0.278 | 0.87x | −SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate | no |
| Ben Rice | NYY | T2 · Power Bat | 0.231 | 0.245 | 0.94x | +park factor, −SP career HR rate | no |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | T2 · Power Bat | 0.227 | 0.262 | 0.87x | −park factor, +career barrel rate | no |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.191 | 1.10x | +park factor, +career barrel rate | HOME RUN |
| Joc Pederson | TEX | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.174 | 1.21x | +SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate | HOME RUN |
| James Wood | WSH | T2 · Power Bat | 0.211 | 0.203 | 1.03x | +recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate | no |
Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.67 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND SUPPRESS
The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor McDonald | T1 · Slugger | 0.900 | 1.158 | 0.78x | elite suppression spot | 1 HR allowed | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | T1 · Slugger | 0.872 | 1.045 | 0.83x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed | |
| Dylan Cease | T1 · Slugger | 0.847 | 1.037 | 0.82x | strong suppression spot | 3 HR allowed | |
| Andrew Alvarez | T1 · Slugger | 0.788 | 0.933 | 0.85x | strong suppression spot | 0 HR allowed |
Section that night: 4 home runs against 4.17 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.
MOUND VULN
The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.
| Pitcher | Team | Tier | Prob | Base | Lift | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers | T1 · Slugger | 1.452 | 1.189 | 1.22x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed | |
| Ronel Blanco | T1 · Slugger | 0.755 | 0.599 | 1.26x | vulnerable spot — hitters' night | 1 HR allowed |
Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.79 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.