Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-20

2026-07-20

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
41picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 16 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS2 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE5 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES4 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 3.
MOUND SUPPRESS4 home runs allowed across 4 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 2 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

STL @ LAA10:10 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park81°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp81°F
Humidity57%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Air density1.158 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge SolerLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +3.6% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIN @ CLE6:40 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph
Pressure988 mb
Air density1.144 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Daniel SchneemannCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.0% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Patrick BaileyCLET4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.32x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-3.5% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PIT @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.0% carry
CF11 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity42%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Marcell OzunaPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +park factor
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan O'HearnPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.5% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Bryan ReynoldsPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.5% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Henry DavisPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.1% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.7% over normal 2.31x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jared TrioloPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.1% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent fly-ball rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Esmerlyn ValdezPITT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-1.5% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ryan Weathers
lineup expected to homer 1.45 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
TB @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park73°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.1% carry
CF13 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity71%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.168 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Hunter FeducciaTBT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.1% over normal 1.36x · SLEEPERS
−SP career HR rate, −pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Dylan Cease
lineup expected to homer 0.85 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
3 HR allowed
LAD @ PHI7:10 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity39%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.164 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ATS
+park factor, −career hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +2.0% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.5% over normal 0.91x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.9% over normal 1.10x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BAL @ BOS7:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF11 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity37%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1013 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ceddanne RafaelaBOST5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.1% over normal 1.30x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SD @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park90°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.5% carry
CF3 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity53%
Wind3 mph
Pressure977 mb
Air density1.103 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.1% over normal 1.61x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 15% +5.3% over normal 1.52x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake CronenworthSDT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.3% over normal 1.34x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
NYM @ MIL7:40 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 16 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +2.4% carry
CF16 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity64%
Wind16 mph
Pressure983 mb
Air density1.125 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Joey OrtizMILT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.7% over normal 1.51x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, −lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jacob Misiorowski
lineup expected to homer 0.87 times vs 1.04 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
SF @ KC7:40 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park96°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.8% carry
CF10 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity49%
Wind10 mph
Pressure979 mb
Air density1.092 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.1% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor McDonald
lineup expected to homer 0.90 times vs 1.16 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
1 HR allowed
CWS @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park97°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp97°F
Humidity39%
Wind7 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.105 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake BurgerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +5.7% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.5% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 25% +-1.3% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-3.7% over normal 0.87x · FAVORITES
−SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.6% over normal 1.21x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
DET @ CHC8:05 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park79°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.6% carry
CF13 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity64%
Wind13 mph
Pressure986 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.0% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Kevin McGonigleDETT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED
+SP fly balls allowed, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park94°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.0% carry
CF1 mph
Temp94°F
Humidity47%
Wind1 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +6.9% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Heriberto HernándezMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.1% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Taylor TrammellHOUT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.7% over normal 1.38x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ronel Blanco
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.60 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
WSH @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park89°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.0% carry
CF9 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity25%
Wind9 mph
Pressure842 mb
Air density0.957 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrés ChaparroWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +9.6% over normal 2.04x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +0.7% over normal 1.03x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew Alvarez
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.93 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
CIN @ SEA9:40 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity63%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mitch GarverSEAT3 · Solid
we say 18% +5.7% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
ATH @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park104°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +2.5% carry
CF10 mph
Temp104°F
Humidity23%
Wind10 mph
Pressure968 mb
Air density1.070 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ketel MarteAZT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +2.5% over normal 1.16x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data