Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-08

2026-08-08

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
37picks
Kyle Schwarbertop pick · 28%
Final results
ELEVATED4 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE2 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES4 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS2 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN3 home runs allowed across 2 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 2 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

ATL @ NYY3:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park86°F, wind 11 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.8% carry
CF11 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity56%
Wind11 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.2% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.0% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Austin RileyATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +7.9% over normal 1.73x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sean MurphyATLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +2.5% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.5% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
7 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.8% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Gerrit Cole
lineup expected to homer 1.64 times vs 1.41 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
1 HR allowed
LAA @ MIA4:10 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park82°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.6% carry
CF5 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity82%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.165 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +1.8% over normal 1.29x · ATS
−SP career barrels allowed, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ BOS4:10 PMFenway Parkpitcher-friendly park85°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.0% carry
CF13 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity56%
Wind13 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jake RogersBOST4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.8% over normal 1.45x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
TOR @ PHI6:05 PMCitizens Bank Parkhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF4 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity92%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1015 mb
Air density1.173 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle SchwarberPHIT1 · Slugger
we say 28% +4.2% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryce HarperPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +5.1% over normal 1.27x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Jesús SánchezTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.8% over normal 1.47x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Bryson StottPHIT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.0% over normal 1.60x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Josh SmithTORT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.4% over normal 2.08x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Luis ArraezPHIT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.5% over normal 1.44x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Max Scherzer
lineup expected to homer 1.29 times vs 1.08 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
NYM @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park75°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity86%
Wind7 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Nick GonzalesPITT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Air density1.172 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José TenaWSHT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.5% over normal 1.31x · SLEEPERS
−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Brady HouseWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.24x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Andrew Alvarez
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.09 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
MIN @ MIL7:10 PMAmerican Family Fieldhitter-friendly park70°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.5% carry
CF4 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity64%
Wind4 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.169 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Garrett MitchellMILT4 · The Field
we say 13% +3.7% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED · ATS
−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Andrew VaughnMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.4% over normal 1.62x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Jake BauersMILT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.5% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ KC7:10 PMKauffman Stadiumpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity75%
Wind7 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.134 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +1.8% over normal 1.11x · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ TEX7:15 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park86°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.1% carry
CF10 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity50%
Wind10 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +8.0% over normal 1.74x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ STL7:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.3% carry
CF5 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity78%
Wind5 mph
Pressure999 mb
Air density1.150 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Blaze JordanSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.6% over normal 1.77x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.5% over normal 1.25x · ATS
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Matthew Liberatore
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
DET @ SF7:15 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park58°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.8% carry
CF8 mph
Temp58°F
Humidity100%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.217 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.9% over normal 1.07x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jackson Jobe
lineup expected to homer 1.08 times vs 1.29 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
HOU @ SD7:15 PMPetco Parkneutral park71°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.0% carry
CF2 mph
Temp71°F
Humidity89%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.183 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.44x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.6% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ CWS7:15 PMRate Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.1% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity88%
Wind4 mph
Pressure995 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Rhys HoskinsCLET2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +6.8% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 18% +6.1% over normal 1.53x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-2.1% over normal 0.92x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
LAD @ AZ8:10 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park93°F, wind 1 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF1 mph
Temp93°F
Humidity27%
Wind1 mph
Pressure970 mb
Air density1.095 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.7% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Hunter FeducciaLADT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.7% over normal 1.82x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
−park factor, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TB @ SEA9:50 PMT-Mobile Parkneutral park61°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -1.6% carry
CF4 mph
Temp61°F
Humidity76%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1017 mb
Air density1.219 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 15% +1.3% over normal 1.09x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +park factor
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-2.8% over normal 0.89x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data