Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-08

2026-08-08

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-07 all nights 2026-08-09 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.238	1.18x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.190	1.27x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.143	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Drake Baldwin	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.179	1.18x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.151	1.27x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.73x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Jesús Sánchez	TOR	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.124	1.47x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryson Stott	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.60x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Randal Grichuk	CWS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.37x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 1.77 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.086	1.62x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Jake Rogers	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.085	1.45x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Josh Smith	TOR	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.050	2.08x	+park factor, −lineup slot	not yet graded
Hunter Feduccia	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.057	1.82x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	no
José Tena	WSH	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.080	1.31x	−recent fly-ball rate, +season barrel rate	not yet graded
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.059	1.77x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	not yet graded
Sean Murphy	ATL	T5 · Longshot	0.089	0.064	1.39x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Luis Arraez	PHI	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.056	1.44x	+park factor, −season hard-hit rate	no
Nick Gonzales	PIT	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	−park factor, +SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.25 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.143	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.74x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.108	1.73x	+career barrel rate, +park factor	no
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.164	1.11x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.115	1.53x	+recent barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.111	1.44x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryson Stott	PHI	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.100	1.60x	+park factor, +pull tendency	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.140	1.09x	+career hard-hit rate, +park factor	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.134	1.07x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.103	1.36x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.086	1.62x	+SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Brady House	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.113	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	T4 · The Field	0.134	0.097	1.37x	−recent fly-ball rate, +career barrel rate	no
Jake Rogers	BOS	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.085	1.45x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.099	1.25x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Hunter Feduccia	LAD	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.057	1.82x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	no
Blaze Jordan	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.059	1.77x	−park factor, +season barrel rate	not yet graded
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.062	1.29x	−SP career barrels allowed, +park factor	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.53 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	T1 · Slugger	0.280	0.238	1.18x	+park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Matt Olson	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.236	1.02x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.262	0.92x	+season hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Bryce Harper	PHI	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.190	1.27x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	−park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.227	0.255	0.89x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Rhys Hoskins	CLE	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.143	1.48x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.236	0.89x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Drake Baldwin	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.179	1.18x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Jake Bauers	MIL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.187	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 4 home runs against 2.41 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Jackson Jobe	T1 · Slugger	1.080	1.295	0.83x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Andrew Alvarez	T1 · Slugger	0.884	1.088	0.81x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Landen Roupp	T1 · Slugger	0.840	1.055	0.80x	elite suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Matthew Liberatore	T1 · Slugger	0.786	0.957	0.82x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 4.39 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Gerrit Cole		T1 · Slugger	1.640	1.413	1.16x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	1 HR allowed
Max Scherzer		T1 · Slugger	1.290	1.078	1.20x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.49 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data