Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-09-16

2026-09-16

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 24%
Final results
ELEVATED1 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 5 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE1 of 15 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 4 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 4 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

CWS @ CLE1:10 PMProgressive Fieldpitcher-friendly park78°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity81%
Wind9 mph
Pressure1001 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm79°88% rh4mph8% rain
2pm79°88% rh5mph10% rain
3pm79°81% rh7mph11% rain
4pm79°80% rh8mph11% rain
5pm78°81% rh9mph11% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET4 · The Field
we say 12% +2.6% over normal 1.26x · ATS
−park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.9% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Parker Messick
lineup expected to homer 0.95 times vs 1.15 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
SF @ STL1:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park95°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.6% carry
CF2 mph
Temp95°F
Humidity43%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1005 mb
Rain chance13%
Air density1.123 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm90°69% rh3mph0% rain
2pm93°56% rh4mph2% rain
3pm94°50% rh4mph9% rain
4pm95°45% rh2mph11% rain
5pm95°43% rh2mph13% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Nolan GormanSTLT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.9% over normal 1.25x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matthew Liberatore
lineup expected to homer 0.80 times vs 0.98 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYY @ MIN1:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park75°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.0% carry
CF7 mph
Temp75°F
Humidity27%
Wind7 mph
Pressure995 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.162 kg/m³

Open-air park.

1pm73°44% rh8mph0% rain
2pm74°36% rh7mph0% rain
3pm75°36% rh6mph0% rain
4pm75°32% rh7mph1% rain
5pm75°27% rh7mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Heliot RamosNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.6% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Spencer JonesNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +3.6% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Anthony VolpeNYYT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.5% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS
+recent fly-ball rate, −platoon edge
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.5% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
DET @ TOR3:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park72°F, wind 0 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.0% carry
CF0 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity78%
Wind0 mph
Pressure1016 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.188 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

3pm73°84% rh5mph0% rain
4pm73°79% rh5mph0% rain
5pm73°75% rh3mph0% rain
6pm73°75% rh3mph0% rain
7pm72°78% rh0mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Riley GreeneDETT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +5.0% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kazuma OkamotoTORT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-0.2% over normal 0.99x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
6 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATH @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park78°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.3% carry
CF14 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity80%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance2%
Air density1.177 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

6pm86°57% rh14mph10% rain
7pm83°64% rh11mph7% rain
8pm81°73% rh10mph5% rain
9pm80°73% rh13mph4% rain
10pm78°80% rh14mph2% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tommy WhiteATHT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +1.4% over normal 1.19x · ATS
−career hard-hit rate, +season barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Shea LangeliersATHT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +1.2% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Brady Basso
lineup expected to homer 0.88 times vs 1.03 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
MIL @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity81%
Wind2 mph
Pressure997 mb
Rain chance17%
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm85°68% rh4mph22% rain
7pm83°73% rh1mph22% rain
8pm81°75% rh3mph14% rain
9pm79°77% rh3mph10% rain
10pm77°81% rh2mph17% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED · ATS
−SP strikeout rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
LAD @ CIN6:40 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park83°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.3% carry
CF2 mph
Temp83°F
Humidity60%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Rain chance12%
Air density1.152 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm94°44% rh7mph2% rain
7pm92°45% rh4mph2% rain
8pm88°50% rh5mph12% rain
9pm85°57% rh5mph16% rain
10pm83°60% rh2mph12% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.0% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Will SmithLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.9% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.3% over normal 2.07x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +season barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Blake Snell
lineup expected to homer 1.04 times vs 1.28 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
PHI @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park73°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.8% carry
CF5 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity68%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1025 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.198 kg/m³

Open-air park.

6pm84°46% rh5mph0% rain
7pm80°51% rh4mph0% rain
8pm77°57% rh5mph0% rain
9pm75°63% rh5mph0% rain
10pm73°68% rh5mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

J.T. RealmutoPHIT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle SchwarberPHIT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-1.6% over normal 0.93x · FAVORITES
+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ NYM7:10 PMCiti Fieldneutral park69°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +0.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1025 mb
Rain chance1%
Air density1.206 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm73°75% rh7mph2% rain
8pm71°81% rh5mph2% rain
9pm71°83% rh5mph2% rain
10pm70°85% rh5mph1% rain
11pm69°86% rh4mph1% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.2% over normal 1.42x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +recent barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete AlonsoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.5% over normal 1.06x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Juan SotoNYMT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-1.1% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Coby MayoBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +2.1% over normal 1.11x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +SP fly balls allowed
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
ATL @ CHC7:40 PMWrigley Fieldneutral park68°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -2.2% carry
CF6 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity93%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Rain chance19%
Air density1.184 kg/m³

Open-air park.

7pm68°92% rh8mph13% rain
8pm68°91% rh8mph12% rain
9pm68°91% rh7mph11% rain
10pm67°91% rh5mph15% rain
11pm68°93% rh6mph19% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.6% over normal 1.54x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Matt OlsonATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +1.6% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
BOS @ TEX8:05 PMGlobe Life Fieldneutral park87°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF7 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity48%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm94°36% rh5mph0% rain
9pm92°39% rh6mph0% rain
10pm90°40% rh6mph0% rain
11pm89°41% rh6mph0% rain
12am86°52% rh6mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Josh JungTEXT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.7% over normal 1.51x · ELEVATED
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Roman AnthonyBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.7% over normal 1.67x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor StoryBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.6% over normal 1.88x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+pull tendency, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ HOU8:10 PMDaikin Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.7% carry
CF4 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity86%
Wind4 mph
Pressure1019 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

8pm82°75% rh6mph1% rain
9pm82°79% rh4mph0% rain
10pm82°82% rh3mph0% rain
11pm81°84% rh3mph0% rain
12am82°87% rh4mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Vinnie PasquantinoKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.0% over normal 1.49x · ELEVATED · ATS
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael MasseyKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.3% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Isaac CollinsKCT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.5% over normal 1.61x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −lineup slot
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.4% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Cristian Javier
lineup expected to homer 1.21 times vs 1.00 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
SD @ COL8:40 PMCoors Fieldneutral park64°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -1.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp64°F
Humidity83%
Wind2 mph
Pressure848 mb
Rain chance11%
Air density1.009 kg/m³

Open-air park.

8pm68°65% rh2mph18% rain
9pm65°78% rh4mph15% rain
10pm64°82% rh10mph11% rain
11pm63°81% rh8mph10% rain
12am68°51% rh7mph18% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +7.0% over normal 1.50x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.9% carry
CF2 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity76%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Rain chance0%
Air density1.192 kg/m³

Open-air park.

9pm69°78% rh5mph0% rain
10pm69°78% rh5mph0% rain
11pm69°77% rh4mph0% rain
12am71°72% rh3mph0% rain
1am70°75% rh2mph0% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Moisés BallesterosLAAT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.3% over normal 1.19x · ATS
+park factor, +season hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIA @ AZ9:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -3.3% carry
CF7 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity90%
Wind7 mph
Pressure975 mb
Rain chance8%
Air density1.138 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

9pm74°87% rh4mph12% rain
10pm73°87% rh3mph10% rain
11pm74°90% rh2mph7% rain
12am74°91% rh4mph7% rain
1am72°90% rh7mph8% rain

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.4% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT3 · Solid
we say 14% +7.3% over normal 2.10x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data