Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-28

2026-07-28

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
39picks
Yordan Alvareztop pick · 25%
Final results
ELEVATED2 of 17 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 3 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.2.
AROUND SLATE3 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 1.
FAVORITES3 of 9 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS3 home runs allowed across 3 starts. That's right about what a typical night for those lineups gives.
MOUND VULN2 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 1 — which is what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

SEA @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park77°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity70%
Wind8 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.145 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Mitch GarverSEAT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +6.9% over normal 1.56x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Teoscar HernándezLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +5.6% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Kyle TuckerLADT3 · Solid
we say 16% +6.2% over normal 1.64x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.3% over normal 1.01x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Luis Castillo
lineup expected to homer 1.36 times vs 1.19 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
2 HR allowed
TEX @ TB6:40 PMTropicana Fieldneutral park84°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF8 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity84%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.149 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.0% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Hunter FeducciaTBT4 · The Field
we say 12% +6.0% over normal 2.04x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.4% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
AZ @ PIT6:40 PMPNC Parkpitcher-friendly park79°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF8 mph
Temp79°F
Humidity72%
Wind8 mph
Pressure977 mb
Air density1.127 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.36x · ELEVATED
+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Ketel MarteAZT3 · Solid
we say 18% +0.9% over normal 1.05x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park84°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.4% carry
CF7 mph
Temp84°F
Humidity84%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.154 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle StowersMIAT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.7% over normal 1.62x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Heriberto HernándezMIAT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.5% over normal 1.28x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 10 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.5% carry
CF10 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity64%
Wind10 mph
Pressure987 mb
Air density1.143 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kevin McGonigleDETT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.0% over normal 1.32x · ATS
−park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
TOR @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park87°F, wind 14 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +7.1% carry
CF14 mph
Temp87°F
Humidity50%
Wind14 mph
Pressure1000 mb
Air density1.139 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dylan CrewsWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.1% over normal 1.17x · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
James WoodWSHT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +1.7% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ CIN7:10 PMGreat American Ball Parkhitter-friendly park85°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.0% carry
CF9 mph
Temp85°F
Humidity53%
Wind9 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.129 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 18% +4.8% over normal 1.38x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Elly De La CruzCINT3 · Solid
we say 18% +3.0% over normal 1.21x · ELEVATED
+park factor, −SP strikeout rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
KC @ MIN7:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park88°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.4% carry
CF3 mph
Temp88°F
Humidity53%
Wind3 mph
Pressure982 mb
Air density1.115 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +7.4% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Josh BellMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.1% over normal 1.24x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.2% over normal 1.48x · ELEVATED
+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Isaac CollinsKCT4 · The Field
we say 10% +2.3% over normal 1.30x · SLEEPERS
−lineup slot, +SP career HR rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Byron BuxtonMINT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.2% over normal 0.95x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
NYY @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park70°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.7% carry
CF12 mph
Temp70°F
Humidity73%
Wind12 mph
Pressure990 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jasson DomínguezNYYT3 · Solid
we say 15% +3.9% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.4% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED
+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Max SchuemannNYYT4 · The Field
we say 12% +5.7% over normal 1.87x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Tristan PetersCWST4 · The Field
we say 10% +1.8% over normal 1.21x · ATS
−career barrel rate, −lineup slot
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-1.7% over normal 0.94x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Colson MontgomeryCWST2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +-6.0% over normal 0.77x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ STL7:45 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park86°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +1.1% carry
CF7 mph
Temp86°F
Humidity72%
Wind7 mph
Pressure992 mb
Air density1.126 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarSTLT4 · The Field
we say 10% +5.1% over normal 1.97x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, +season hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ LAA9:38 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park82°F, wind 7 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.9% carry
CF7 mph
Temp82°F
Humidity55%
Wind7 mph
Pressure1003 mb
Air density1.151 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jorge SolerLAAT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.1% over normal 1.29x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Yordan AlvarezHOUT1 · Slugger
we say 25% +1.1% over normal 1.04x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed
4 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
COL @ SD9:40 PMPetco Parkneutral park76°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +2.0% carry
CF5 mph
Temp76°F
Humidity73%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1008 mb
Air density1.171 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.9% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Edouard JulienCOLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.5% over normal 1.66x · SLEEPERS · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +-2.8% over normal 0.88x · FAVORITES
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael King
lineup expected to homer 0.92 times vs 1.05 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
2 HR allowed
BOS @ ATH9:40 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park95°F, wind 8 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +5.8% carry
CF8 mph
Temp95°F
Humidity20%
Wind8 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.133 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jeff McNeilATHT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +2.3% over normal 1.39x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Wilyer AbreuBOST3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.4% over normal 1.20x · ATS
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ SF9:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park68°F, wind 17 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +6.1% carry
CF17 mph
Temp68°F
Humidity74%
Wind17 mph
Pressure1011 mb
Air density1.194 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT3 · Solid
we say 14% +0.8% over normal 1.06x · ATS
−park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Logan Henderson
lineup expected to homer 0.76 times vs 0.92 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
1 HR allowed
Landen Roupp
lineup expected to homer 0.60 times vs 0.77 normally · MOUND
elite suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.7% over normal 1.33x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.8% over normal 1.43x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data