Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-07-28

2026-07-28

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-07-27 all nights 2026-07-29 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.125	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Mitch Garver	SEA	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.122	1.56x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.144	1.33x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.126	1.45x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Jorge Soler	LAA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.146	1.21x	+SP strikeout rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.128	1.38x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.145	1.21x	+park factor, −SP strikeout rate	no
Josh Bell	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.128	1.24x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.108	1.48x	+season hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	no
Kyle Tucker	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.097	1.64x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.101	1.58x	+career barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.36x	+recent barrel rate, +SP strikeout rate	HOME RUN
Heriberto Hernández	MIA	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.124	1.28x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Jasson Domínguez	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.153	0.113	1.34x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Randal Grichuk	CWS	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.109	1.31x	+career hard-hit rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.090	1.37x	−park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.08 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Max Schuemann	NYY	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.066	1.87x	+park factor, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Hunter Feduccia	TB	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.057	2.04x	+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.053	1.97x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Isaac Collins	KC	T4 · The Field	0.100	0.077	1.30x	−lineup slot, +SP career HR rate	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.087	0.053	1.66x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no
Jeff McNeil	ATH	T5 · Longshot	0.081	0.058	1.39x	+park factor, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.18 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.125	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Mitch Garver	SEA	T2 · Power Bat	0.191	0.122	1.56x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Jorge Soler	LAA	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.141	1.29x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ketel Marte	AZ	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.167	1.05x	+career hard-hit rate, −SP career HR rate	no
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.176	0.128	1.38x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.112	1.43x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.119	1.20x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.135	1.06x	−park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Dylan Crews	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.122	1.17x	+SP strikeout rate, −SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Kevin McGonigle	DET	T4 · The Field	0.123	0.094	1.32x	−park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	no
Hunter Feduccia	TB	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.057	2.04x	+season barrel rate, +recent barrel rate	not yet graded
Lars Nootbaar	STL	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.053	1.97x	−park factor, +season hard-hit rate	no
Tristan Peters	CWS	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.087	1.21x	−career barrel rate, −lineup slot	no
Edouard Julien	COL	T5 · Longshot	0.087	0.053	1.66x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.47 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	T1 · Slugger	0.255	0.244	1.04x	+park factor, +SP fly balls allowed	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.255	0.94x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.258	0.94x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Byron Buxton	MIN	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.253	0.95x	+career hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.238	1.01x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
James Wood	WSH	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.209	1.08x	+SP strikeout rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.239	0.88x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Kyle Stowers	MIA	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.125	1.62x	+recent hard-hit rate, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.129	1.57x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Colson Montgomery	CWS	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.263	0.77x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.96 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Michael King	T1 · Slugger	0.921	1.049	0.88x	strong suppression spot	2 HR allowed
Logan Henderson	T1 · Slugger	0.764	0.918	0.83x	strong suppression spot	1 HR allowed
Landen Roupp	T1 · Slugger	0.599	0.770	0.78x	elite suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 3 home runs against 2.74 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Luis Castillo		T1 · Slugger	1.358	1.190	1.14x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	2 HR allowed

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.19 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data