Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-12

2026-08-12

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

Pass shown: confirmed, morning — the board that was graded for each game (the last one posted before first pitch). On nights where a later board replaced an earlier one for a given game, the graded board is the one on record here.

← 2026-08-11 all nights 2026-08-13 →

ELEVATED

Top 15 by delta (tonight's probability minus the bat's own baseline). The headline board.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Matt Olson	ATL	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.241	1.18x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Corey Seager	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.183	1.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.115	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.203	0.154	1.32x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jac Caglianone	KC	T2 · Power Bat	0.188	0.145	1.30x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.139	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.121	1.34x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.105	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.114	1.40x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Dansby Swanson	CHC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.117	1.37x	+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Brett Baty	NYM	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.113	1.41x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	not yet graded
Michael Massey	KC	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.101	1.58x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Randal Grichuk	CWS	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.096	1.46x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	not yet graded
Trevor Larnach	MIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.099	1.41x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no

Section that night: 3 home runs against 1.88 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

SLEEPERS

Top 5 by lift among bats with a LOW baseline — the ones a power list would not surface.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Tommy Edman	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.080	1.79x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Andrew Vaughn	MIL	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.088	1.59x	+career barrel rate, +lineup slot	no
Kyle Karros	COL	T4 · The Field	0.117	0.081	1.46x	+park factor, +lineup slot	not yet graded
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.062	1.68x	+season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate	no
Jakob Marsee	MIA	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.062	1.48x	+park factor, −career barrel rate	no
Lars Nootbaar	AZ	T5 · Longshot	0.080	0.050	1.60x	−park factor, +recent barrel rate	no

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.26 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

AROUND SLATE

One bat per game, the best by delta. Broad coverage rather than concentration.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Corey Seager	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.183	1.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.115	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Jonathan Aranda	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.135	1.35x	+park factor, +career hard-hit rate	no
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.116	1.57x	+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate	no
Bryce Eldridge	SF	T2 · Power Bat	0.183	0.139	1.32x	+career barrel rate, −park factor	no
Ryan McMahon	NYY	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.121	1.34x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Austin Riley	ATL	T3 · Solid	0.163	0.105	1.55x	+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate	HOME RUN
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	T3 · Solid	0.160	0.122	1.30x	+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate	not yet graded
José Ramírez	CLE	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.116	1.23x	+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency	no
Tommy Edman	LAD	T3 · Solid	0.143	0.080	1.79x	+park factor, +pull tendency	not yet graded
Jesús Sánchez	TOR	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.125	1.12x	−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate	no
Andrés Chaparro	WSH	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.097	1.45x	−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Michael Toglia	CIN	T3 · Solid	0.140	0.110	1.28x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Ryan Waldschmidt	AZ	T4 · The Field	0.105	0.062	1.68x	+season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate	no
Jimmy Crooks	STL	T5 · Longshot	0.092	0.095	0.97x	−park factor, −SP career HR rate	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 1.52 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

FAVORITES

Top 10 by raw probability. Published for transparency; NO edge is claimed here — expect roughly 1.0x baseline.

Batter	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Matt Olson	ATL	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.241	1.18x	+park factor, +SP strikeout rate	no
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	T1 · Slugger	0.286	0.264	1.08x	+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Ben Rice	NYY	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.240	1.00x	+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate	no
Joc Pederson	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.203	1.19x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	no
Corey Seager	TEX	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.183	1.31x	+park factor, +SP career HR rate	HOME RUN
Junior Caminero	TB	T2 · Power Bat	0.241	0.250	0.97x	+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate	no
Hunter Goodman	COL	T2 · Power Bat	0.231	0.226	1.02x	+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate	no
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	T2 · Power Bat	0.226	0.232	0.98x	+park factor, +career barrel rate	HOME RUN
Tyler O'Neill	BAL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.115	1.83x	+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate	no
Brandon Lowe	PIT	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.198	1.07x	+SP strikeout rate, +park factor	no
Drake Baldwin	ATL	T2 · Power Bat	0.211	0.177	1.19x	+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor	no

Section that night: 2 home runs against 2.33 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND SUPPRESS

The three starting pitchers whose opposing lineups project LOWEST. Graded inverted: below 1.0 is the win.

Pitcher	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Kyle Leahy	T1 · Slugger	0.967	1.112	0.87x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Ranger Suarez	T1 · Slugger	0.842	1.014	0.83x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed
Zack Wheeler	T1 · Slugger	0.793	0.962	0.82x	strong suppression spot	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 0 home runs against 3.09 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

MOUND VULN

The single starting pitcher whose opposing lineup projects highest.

Pitcher	Team	Tier	Prob	Base	Lift	Why	Result
Eric Lauer		T1 · Slugger	0.999	0.755	1.32x	vulnerable spot — hitters' night	0 HR allowed

Section that night: 0 home runs against 0.75 expected from these bats' own baselines. One night is far too small to read as a result — see the rolling figures on the record.

Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-08-16. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data