Sparrow Data

Sparrow Data

Board archive — 2026-08-12

2026-08-12

The boards exactly as posted that night, with results. Nothing has been reordered, filtered or removed.

15games
36picks
Matt Olsontop pick · 29%
Final results
ELEVATED3 of 14 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
SLEEPERS0 of 4 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 0.3.
AROUND SLATE2 of 13 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
FAVORITES2 of 11 picks homered. A typical night for these bats is 2.
MOUND SUPPRESS0 home runs allowed across 3 starts. A typical night for those lineups is 3 — which is what we called for.
MOUND VULN0 home runs allowed across 1 start. A typical night for those lineups is 0.8 — which is not what we called for.

One night is far too small to read as a result — the rolling record is on the record page.

KC @ LAD10:10 PMUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadiumhitter-friendly park66°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.2% carry
CF2 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity91%
Wind2 mph
Pressure993 mb
Air density1.174 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jac CaglianoneKCT2 · Power Bat
we say 19% +4.3% over normal 1.30x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Michael MasseyKCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.8% over normal 1.58x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Tommy EdmanLADT3 · Solid
we say 14% +6.3% over normal 1.79x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+park factor, +pull tendency
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Shohei OhtaniLADT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +-0.6% over normal 0.98x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +career barrel rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Eric Lauer
lineup expected to homer 1.00 times vs 0.75 normally · MOUND
vulnerable spot — hitters' night
0 HR allowed
TEX @ LAA10:10 PMAngel Stadiumhitter-friendly park69°F, wind 2 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT -0.1% carry
CF2 mph
Temp69°F
Humidity83%
Wind2 mph
Pressure1007 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Corey SeagerTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +5.8% over normal 1.31x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brandon NimmoTEXT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.40x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Joc PedersonTEXT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +3.8% over normal 1.19x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP career HR rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BAL @ MIN1:40 PMTarget Fieldhitter-friendly park89°F, wind 3 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +3.7% carry
CF3 mph
Temp89°F
Humidity34%
Wind3 mph
Pressure981 mb
Air density1.114 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Tyler O'NeillBALT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +9.6% over normal 1.83x · ELEVATED · ATS · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Trevor LarnachMINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.1% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
PHI @ STL2:15 PMBusch Stadiumpitcher-friendly park90°F, wind 13 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.3% carry
CF13 mph
Temp90°F
Humidity60%
Wind13 mph
Pressure991 mb
Air density1.119 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jimmy CrooksSTLT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +-0.3% over normal 0.97x · ATS
−park factor, −SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Kyle Leahy
lineup expected to homer 0.97 times vs 1.11 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
Zack Wheeler
lineup expected to homer 0.79 times vs 0.96 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
TB @ ATH3:05 PMSutter Health Parkhitter-friendly park80°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +4.7% carry
CF12 mph
Temp80°F
Humidity45%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1006 mb
Air density1.163 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jonathan ArandaTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.7% over normal 1.35x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +career hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Junior CamineroTBT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +-0.9% over normal 0.97x · FAVORITES
+career barrel rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
COL @ AZ3:40 PMChase Fieldpitcher-friendly park96°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.2% carry
CF5 mph
Temp96°F
Humidity31%
Wind5 mph
Pressure968 mb
Air density1.085 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Kyle KarrosCOLT4 · The Field
we say 12% +3.7% over normal 1.46x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, +lineup slot
1 home run in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Ryan WaldschmidtAZT4 · The Field
we say 10% +4.2% over normal 1.68x · SLEEPERS · ATS
+season barrel rate, −career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Lars NootbaarAZT5 · Longshot
we say 8% +3.0% over normal 1.60x · SLEEPERS
−park factor, +recent barrel rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
Hunter GoodmanCOLT2 · Power Bat
we say 23% +0.5% over normal 1.02x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
HOU @ SF3:45 PMOracle Parkpitcher-friendly park60°F, wind 12 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +3.6% carry
CF12 mph
Temp60°F
Humidity92%
Wind12 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.209 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryce EldridgeSFT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +4.4% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, −park factor
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
MIL @ SD4:10 PMPetco Parkneutral park72°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +0.7% carry
CF5 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity84%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1012 mb
Air density1.182 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Andrew VaughnMILT3 · Solid
we say 14% +5.2% over normal 1.59x · SLEEPERS
+career barrel rate, +lineup slot
3 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Fernando Tatis Jr.SDT3 · Solid
we say 16% +3.7% over normal 1.30x · ATS
+career barrel rate, −SP career HR rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
PIT @ MIA6:40 PMloanDepot parkpitcher-friendly park77°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity89%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1018 mb
Air density1.176 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Bryan ReynoldsPITT2 · Power Bat
we say 18% +6.7% over normal 1.57x · ELEVATED · ATS
+SP strikeout rate, +recent barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Jakob MarseeMIAT5 · Longshot
we say 9% +3.0% over normal 1.48x · SLEEPERS
+park factor, −career barrel rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Brandon LowePITT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +1.3% over normal 1.07x · FAVORITES
+SP strikeout rate, +park factor
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
CLE @ DET6:40 PMComerica Parkpitcher-friendly park72°F, wind 9 mph
Weather — WINDS IN -0.1% carry
CF9 mph
Temp72°F
Humidity85%
Wind9 mph
Pressure988 mb
Air density1.157 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

José RamírezCLET3 · Solid
we say 14% +2.7% over normal 1.23x · ATS
+career hard-hit rate, +pull tendency
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CHC @ WSH6:45 PMNationals Parkneutral park77°F, wind 5 mph
Weather — WINDS OUT +1.9% carry
CF5 mph
Temp77°F
Humidity75%
Wind5 mph
Pressure1010 mb
Air density1.170 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Dansby SwansonCHCT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.3% over normal 1.37x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +SP career HR rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Andrés ChaparroWSHT3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.3% over normal 1.45x · ELEVATED · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
SEA @ NYY7:05 PMYankee Stadiumhitter-friendly park74°F, wind 6 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.5% carry
CF6 mph
Temp74°F
Humidity82%
Wind6 mph
Pressure1009 mb
Air density1.175 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Ryan McMahonNYYT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.2% over normal 1.34x · ELEVATED · ATS
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
1 home run in his last 15 games
no
Ben RiceNYYT2 · Power Bat
we say 24% +0.1% over normal 1.00x · FAVORITES
+park factor, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
BOS @ TOR7:07 PMRogers Centreneutral park66°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — WINDS IN +0.4% carry
CF4 mph
Temp66°F
Humidity94%
Wind4 mph
Pressure999 mb
Air density1.185 kg/m³

Retractable roof: state not confirmed for this game. The conditions shown assume the roof is open; if it closes, wind and air density stop applying.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Jesús SánchezTORT3 · Solid
we say 14% +1.5% over normal 1.12x · ATS
−SP career HR rate, +career barrel rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ranger Suarez
lineup expected to homer 0.84 times vs 1.01 normally · MOUND
strong suppression spot
0 HR allowed
NYM @ ATL7:15 PMTruist Parkhitter-friendly park78°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND -0.2% carry
CF4 mph
Temp78°F
Humidity82%
Wind4 mph
Pressure978 mb
Air density1.128 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Matt OlsonATLT1 · Slugger
we say 29% +4.4% over normal 1.18x · ELEVATED · FAVORITES
+park factor, +SP strikeout rate
8 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 20% +4.9% over normal 1.32x · ELEVATED
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Austin RileyATLT3 · Solid
we say 16% +5.7% over normal 1.55x · ELEVATED · ATS
+career barrel rate, +recent hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
HOME RUN
Brett BatyNYMT3 · Solid
we say 16% +4.6% over normal 1.41x · ELEVATED
+park factor, +career barrel rate
4 home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Drake BaldwinATLT2 · Power Bat
we say 21% +3.3% over normal 1.19x · FAVORITES
+recent hard-hit rate, +park factor
No home runs in his last 15 games
no
CIN @ CWS7:40 PMRate Fieldneutral park73°F, wind 4 mph
Weather — CROSSWIND +1.3% carry
CF4 mph
Temp73°F
Humidity94%
Wind4 mph
Pressure989 mb
Air density1.155 kg/m³

Open-air park.

No hourly detail stored for this game.

Descriptive, not a model input. The live model uses no weather feature. Carry is a stated rule of thumb: 0.3% per mph of wind out to centre, plus 0.9% per 1% that air density sits below this park's season average. Wind is drawn against the park's real compass bearing.

Randal GrichukCWST3 · Solid
we say 14% +4.4% over normal 1.46x · ELEVATED
−SP career HR rate, +recent hard-hit rate
No home runs in his last 15 games
not yet graded
Michael TogliaCINT3 · Solid
we say 14% +3.0% over normal 1.28x · ATS
+career barrel rate, +career hard-hit rate
2 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Munetaka MurakamiCWST1 · Slugger
we say 29% +2.2% over normal 1.08x · FAVORITES
+career hard-hit rate, +season hard-hit rate
5 home runs in his last 15 games
no
Sparrow Data — every pick published before first pitch and graded the next morning. Archive covers 2026-07-09 through 2026-09-25. Nothing here is ever edited or removed after the fact. Methodology · Raw data